Traders' Roundtable

someone recently wrote that it's the articles on page 16 in the paper that migrate to page 1 that can make you money...speaking fundamentally of course :) I was pointing out that there is truth to that wrt black swans.

The small story on page 16 becomes the Big Story on page 1.

Today, if I were ...

Ghostrider wrote:

shakyamuni wrote:On a jovial note...

One good way to avoid Black Swan events is to see them coming ahead of time and get out of the market.

Would you explain how you see Black Swan events ahead of time?

The page 16 articles that are on their way to migrating to page 1

Splits, dividends, mergers, liquidations...

I don't use free data to test anything because there are too many factors. I find a good vendor and gladly pay them to sort it out.

We all know that trading pit-traded futures has its issues with bad fills and so forth.

I would like to start a thread on your experiences with trading pit-traded futures -- especially the horror stories.

I have more success trading open outcry markets than I do electronic markets, so I put up ...

BTW, thinking more on it, we had a "price shock" on Friday, which are fairly common, not a "black swan" which is not common but is more common than commonly assumed

it does show you how correlated markets are. All the commodities and currencies and precious metals were hit (except the dollar of course.)

I have been using Norgate, Premium Data, in Australia for EOD futures and US equity data.

Their service has been impeccable so far. They answer emails promptly and are helpful. I have never spoken to them but did a trial and decided to sign up after every thing worked perfectly.

They offer a pre ...

I get out prior to the announcement and then if warranted get back in.

I find that starting around 8:25am eastern US time, there are sometimes wild ups and downs that can take out catastrophic stops I've set, and that have nothing to do with the overall market direction.

thank you very much!

ksberg for the benefit of someone like me who is a know-nothing, what does the first chart represent?

There is such a strong bias to the Long side that I simply do not Sell Short equities and their derivatives with my LTTF system.



This may be true over the long run from 1982 - the present, but have you tested for periods prior to 1982? That is the start of the Great Bull Market.

If you ...

I like Interactive Brokers IF you ...

1. don't mind dealing strictly on the web (the phone support falls short)

and

2. trade only electronically traded financial futures (e-minis, etc. but no pit traded futures)

Their commissions are reasonable, their windows application (a Java app) is good ...

all I can say is that if it were me, my confidence would be very shaken and I would want to stop and regroup for awhile.

This is what the traders almost to a person said they did in The Market Wizards and The New Market Wizards including the trend following adherents. All of them had limits where ...

it sounds similar to an approach discussed by Larry Connors and Linda Raschke, with some twists credited to someone named Gipson.

Take the ratio of 6 day to 100 day historical volatility. If it falls below 50%, and today is either an inside range day or the lowest volatility day of the last 4 days ...

I am very inexperienced but have this to suggest with that in mind:

Why not stop trading for awhile. Paper trade your system and do not trade real money. Take a breather. Collect your thoughts.

Thanks for a great thread topic.

I no longer set what I call destination goals. I don't say "I'll get to this particular place by x date" in other words, the specific type of written goals that some advocate. I found that much too painful.

I do have what I call process goals. My process goals are ...

I can't afford his book

They are asking $500 or more for it

I've used the Silva Method for many years. I highly recommend the tapes by Robert Stone, that's how I learned

link to the tapes from Nightingale-Conant

Before Silva I had done self-hypnosis since I was 13. Silva is more fun and I still sometimes practice it to this day.

The Psychology of Trading is one of those books where you will make a lot of discoveries about yourself and about your life, if you are paying attention, that all tie into trading.

Steebarger is a psychologist specializing in "brief therapy" and also an active trader. The book has chapters that ...

this was in fact the thought that made me think of this thread, that i forgot to put into the post.

I have heard it said, " a new trader should 'expect' to lose money for at least a year, maybe more".

In my view, this is a horrible attitude.



No, I actually think this is very healthy. If you ...