Fine Lines - 2012 success or not

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Chris67
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
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Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2003 2:12 pm
Location: London

Fine Lines - 2012 success or not

Post by Chris67 » Fri Jun 15, 2012 5:06 am

This post is a bit of a folloow on to AFJ's interesting 80 Day BBO Post

It is quite incredible just what a fine line there is between a home run and a nasty draw down and it shows that over any given time period luck plays a heavy constituent in TF - A note that investors in TF should take head of

Ive noticed on one of my finds that we use an X day break-out as the core of what we do (there are other systems and add ons)
X DAY -20 is up 29% YTD
X-DAY = -31% YTD

All else stays teh same - the only other change is the fact one trades 1% risk the other is heat controlled

running both systems is equally as smart and in fact a few years ago teh reverse happened - but it just goes to show what a fine line we run over a small period of time
Over 20 years both systems show identical results more or less but I wonder how many investors what understand what Im getting at here with regards to saying x trend follower is a raging success and y trend follower has a problem - over a given 3/6/9/even 18 months that is a dangerus judgement to make

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