How do you know when a trend has started? Ended? This forum is for discussions about trend indicators and signals.
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Post by chopsuey1111 » Wed Jun 25, 2008 10:36 am

After recent talks w/ DHL, UPS is showing some great upside lately, outperforming most analyst's expectations and growing a great network for the long term. This is a definite "buy" for investors right now. On xxx show the guest analyst said UPS will be great for the long term, but not so much the near term.

AFJ Garner
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Post by AFJ Garner » Wed Jun 25, 2008 3:51 pm

Dear Chopsuey

Having worked as an analyst in an investment bank I have a healthy disregard for such folk. The job of an analyst was to create ideas for the sales staff and many of such ideas were less than useful. You may recall that Abbey The Troll at Goldman was still shouting at everyone to buy high tech just before the crash.

There is indeed a place for intelligent and well researched fundamental analysis but you are unlikely to find too many useful recommendations coming out of the sources you quote. Good broker or fund management research can indeed point to good management, growth industries, long term trends. But short term tips? I think not.

I have been working with some excellent research produced by my broker Morgan Stanley on ETFs. It is excellent in that it comprehensively surveys the market, lists what is out there and the providers, gives statistics and breakdowns galore on every aspect of the market.

And then there are some recommendations – asset allocations for instance. Interestingly, there is no historic record of such recommendations or a back-test of what would have happened if you had followed them.

This forum is all about painstaking, grinding analysis – mostly of price but we can input fundamentals such as interest rates, EPS, dividend yield, if we so choose, to see if we can find useable correlations between such data and price trends.

What we don’t tend to do is to work too much with “tipsâ€

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