professional traders idea & help

How do you know when a trend has started? Ended? This forum is for discussions about trend indicators and signals.
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mjvishy
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professional traders idea & help

Post by mjvishy » Thu May 29, 2008 4:02 am

Hi all,

Attached the intraday data of National Stock Exchange traded Index data. Data contains Buyers, Sellers, Difference between buyers and sellers, last traded price, trade date and trade time, traded quantity.

Can any one of successful traders in this forum can suggest how can we trade and please share your trading plan.

Thanks

Jay
Attachments
IntradayNiftyData.xls
(282 KiB) Downloaded 489 times

nodoodahs
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Post by nodoodahs » Thu May 29, 2008 8:19 am

I would like more information on what the data IS. What's the NIFTY, what exchange is it traded on, what does it track?

Is it the French CAC 40? Price looks about right, but I don't usually follow it ...

nodoodahs
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Post by nodoodahs » Thu May 29, 2008 8:58 am

I've been informed it's in India. Cool.

It looks like most stock indices in terms of trend-following; intermediate-strength trends follow through, very strong trends (think percentage-based moving average convergence/divergence or PPO) tend to mean-revert, and there's a slight upward bias.

If I were forced to trade this ...

I would set up different exponential or simple moving averages and try to find a timeframe pair that had good overall trending characteristics (regression to subsequent bar gain vs. PPO), then set that PPO into deciles (or twenty-iles, whatever) and see where it mean-reverted at the extremes, and where the indeterminant trend wasn't worth riding. Then I would test this idea, paper-trading for a while, or against other sets of data, shorting strong (but not extremely strong) downtrends and going long into strong (but not extremely strong) uptrends, using those ranges I tested as my entry and exit signals. I would probably go flat overnite.

mjvishy
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Post by mjvishy » Fri May 30, 2008 12:37 am

nodoodahs wrote:I've been informed it's in India. Cool.

It looks like most stock indices in terms of trend-following; intermediate-strength trends follow through, very strong trends (think percentage-based moving average convergence/divergence or PPO) tend to mean-revert, and there's a slight upward bias.

If I were forced to trade this ...

I would set up different exponential or simple moving averages and try to find a timeframe pair that had good overall trending characteristics (regression to subsequent bar gain vs. PPO), then set that PPO into deciles (or twenty-iles, whatever) and see where it mean-reverted at the extremes, and where the indeterminant trend wasn't worth riding. Then I would test this idea, paper-trading for a while, or against other sets of data, shorting strong (but not extremely strong) downtrends and going long into strong (but not extremely strong) uptrends, using those ranges I tested as my entry and exit signals. I would probably go flat overnite.

nodoodahs,

I cant understand your response, can you give some examples so that I can follow and try it with paper trade.

I do follow some trading rules and find stocks that match my trading rules and see the success rate and do the trade. The file that you see is the Index traded in india. All my trading rules are failing for this particular Index and seeking help from someone who can guide me.

I never work with any charting tools or any market data providers or technical indicators, I have my own rules and have simple logics using excel sheets.

Thanks
Jay

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Post by nodoodahs » Fri May 30, 2008 5:07 am

Look here for some definitions, including that for the PPO. You can create it on a spreadsheet.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... indicators

Add columns for PPOs with different parameters of long and short moving averages. Examine the average return when different ranges of PPO values are present. The deciles technique means grouping by score (PPO value) into 10 groups from lowest to highest, and examining average returns for that group. There's nothing special about 10 groups, you could do 20, or 15, or 13, etc.

Find what the index tends to do at different ranges and different sets of parameters. Find the set of parameters that seems to have the most differentiation of response. Make some buy and sell rules out of that.

mjvishy
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Post by mjvishy » Sat May 31, 2008 7:20 am

nodoodahs wrote:Look here for some definitions, including that for the PPO. You can create it on a spreadsheet.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... indicators

Add columns for PPOs with different parameters of long and short moving averages. Examine the average return when different ranges of PPO values are present. The deciles technique means grouping by score (PPO value) into 10 groups from lowest to highest, and examining average returns for that group. There's nothing special about 10 groups, you could do 20, or 15, or 13, etc.

Find what the index tends to do at different ranges and different sets of parameters. Find the set of parameters that seems to have the most differentiation of response. Make some buy and sell rules out of that.
nodoodahs,

Is it possible for you to download the file that i uploaded and put some examples so that i will use that as base, I saw the website and its all new for me to understand and cant bring all those as formulas in excel.

Any how thanks for your help, great work

jay

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Post by nodoodahs » Sat May 31, 2008 8:53 am

Your best bet is to go slow and do it yourself. Start with simple moving averages, then exponential, then build the PPO with the definitions given at the site.

If you do it yourself, you'll remember it, you'll understand it, and you'll be able to apply it better.

mjvishy
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Post by mjvishy » Mon Jun 02, 2008 2:10 am

nodoodahs wrote:Your best bet is to go slow and do it yourself. Start with simple moving averages, then exponential, then build the PPO with the definitions given at the site.

If you do it yourself, you'll remember it, you'll understand it, and you'll be able to apply it better.
nodoodahs,

Thanks for your guidance, let me do that and come back if i struck in between.

Jay

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