Any trendfollowers

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Chelonia
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Any trendfollowers

Post by Chelonia » Mon May 22, 2017 8:33 am

Hi All,

I was just wondering if there are still some trendfollowers out here who may want to engage in a testing/trading discussion. What are you doing at the moment, how have you done over the last, lets say, 5 years. Just trying to get some discussion going as trendfollowing can be lonely and frustrating from time to time. 8)

Wisdom
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Wisdom » Sun May 28, 2017 11:34 am

It's hard to get excited about a strategy with only 1 good year out of the last 5. Probably why this forum has been so quiet lately. But, I suspect better markets are coming.
Shane Wisdom
www.wisdomtrading.com

Wisdom
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Wisdom » Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:18 am

http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=810657

It's probably a good time to start that trend following system again if you're not trading through this drawdown.

Shane Wisdom
www.wisdomtrading.com

sethd
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by sethd » Wed Jun 07, 2017 9:39 am

I took my first system live 6/1. I've been testing and researching for the past six months. Seems like a good time to begin since TF has been a rough slog the past couple of years.

rajivm
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by rajivm » Tue May 29, 2018 12:29 am

Wisdom wrote:
Thu Jun 01, 2017 7:18 am
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/ ... ?id=810657

It's probably a good time to start that trend following system again if you're not trading through this drawdown.

Shane Wisdom
www.wisdomtrading.com
Hello Shane

Why do you recommend A system that doesn't perform well for such long periods. I feel even one bad year is quite stressful in the life of trader.
Regards
Rajiv

Wisdom
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Wisdom » Mon Jun 04, 2018 2:48 pm

Trend following might not make money every year, but it's one of the best strategies that I've found for extracting profits out of the markets. PM if you have some other strategies to share. I'm interested.

Best regards,
Shane Wisdom
www.wisdomtrading.com

Chris67
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chris67 » Tue Jun 05, 2018 3:10 pm

Good to see this post !
Used to love being on here 10 years ago as lots of comments but all gone quiet now as probably poor performance put so many off
I am still avidly following the trends - 2014 a great year and 2 years either side of that were rubbish. I still honestly believe we will see a blow off year and soon - dont forget all its needs is one blow off year in 10 and the performance will mean an average 10 year return is better than all the algo's and stock pickers generating their little QE induced 10% per year who will all drop an absolute bollock as soon as the wind turns ... seen it all before

Wisdom
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Wisdom » Tue Jun 05, 2018 6:18 pm

There's some great trends in select markets right now, but bigger sector reversals have been the challenge this year. Trend following has never been easy though, it's just one maddening cycle after another. Gotta love it.

Chelonia
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chelonia » Tue Nov 06, 2018 7:47 am

Wow, just checking back on this post and it seems like "the last of the mohicons" in here. Now I feel even more lonely :(

The good thing is that we´re up 10.2% for 2018 to date, with a solid 5.24% for october alone (net of 2/20). Jan/Feb we also outperformed followed by a give back period that ended in June. Compared to the whales we seem to be very much uncorrelated seeing them negative for the year even into the double digits. I think size/scalability has forced them into equities, hence the big correlation between stocks and their performance. There used to be a time where the large firms only had stock market indices in the portfolio and no single stocks. I wonder if there is a big misallocation i.e.; correlation risk in place, how else can you explain the large drawdowns reported during stock market meltdowns as I don´t think that (short) bond positions alone can be responsible for these setbacks. Perhaps small is the new big. Anyways, thanks for your responses!

Demon
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Demon » Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:46 am

I would say in a nutshell it's down to the timeframe. Given the performance numbers you're giving I'd guess you guys are pretty short term?

Chelonia
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chelonia » Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:39 am

Multi systematic with 25% of total equity allocated to a shorter term system i.e.: shorter holding period due to more agressive exit rules.

Chelonia
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chelonia » Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:37 am

+15.29 ytd, net of 2/20 and brokerage fees. Natgas made a really nice contribution in November with biggest $ gain/market for the year. Unfortunately one of my largest investors, a family office from Lnd, jumped ship in December taking out 5m. Obviously nothing to do with performance, but changed circumstances they wouldn´t reveal. Very frustrating to say the least. References available on request.

If anyone is interested to invest or partner up don´t hesitate to contact me. Nearly 3 yr (Jan 2016-Dec 2018) track record outperforming all of the usual suspects in this space. Longer very good track record available but fragmented (from 2007 to 2012). The program wasn´t traded between 2012 and 2016.

Merry x-mas for all, and may the new year bring good health, happiness, and success at whatever you choose to accomplish!

Chris67
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chris67 » Sat Dec 22, 2018 12:59 pm

Have PM'd you

Best
Chris

bigsky99
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by bigsky99 » Sat Dec 29, 2018 6:35 pm

Congrats on a good year! I got a kick out of your "the last of the mohicons" comment.... funny. I'm sure there are plenty of trendfollowers around ... just inactively lurking in the shadows. Still looking for the faith... thanks for the update. Happy New Year!

Chelonia
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chelonia » Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:52 am

Thanks for your comment! I'm sure you're right about that. Like a sea turtle waiting to resurface :-)
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rajivm
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by rajivm » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:48 am

Are you guys following Trends because you cannot find any other method that works or it is a CULT like thing?

Chelonia
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chelonia » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:05 pm

I guess it does not matter what technique you use, if there is no trend when you buy or sell, you will never be able to sell at higher prices, and buy back at lower prices.

Roger Rines
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Roger Rines » Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:56 pm

Chelonia wrote:
Tue Jan 22, 2019 12:05 pm
I guess it does not matter what technique you use, if there is no trend when you buy or sell, you will never be able to sell at higher prices, and buy back at lower prices.
Above quote is the reality of trading. Furthermore, a market doesn't trend much more than an average of twenty to thirty percent of the time. In the period that historical data shows trends in early 1970 to late 1980 periods, the markets appeared to trend for longer periods. In those periods the systems didn't need much thinking to grow an account. That is not true today.

Systems that were used back then are not going to survive in today's markets. It is worse when there is so much political dysfunction in so many countries. When markets don't trend, they flop around like a fish out of water. That flopping around will trigger signals that have not economic motivation. To me, it is best to not generate orders until the market is moving.

Sometimes the hardest thing to do in trading is to not trade. Lately, that seems to be a good idea for now.

sluggo
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by sluggo » Thu Jan 24, 2019 9:06 pm

Three of the futures money managers to whom I allocated money, closed shop recently, and returned my remaining account balance. I don't know whether they were "true trendfollowers" or not. However I do know that their real-money, multi-year underperformance seems to have told them: find a new line of work.

Chuck B
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Re: Any trendfollowers

Post by Chuck B » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:21 am

Given that market liquidity is generally at/near all-time lows, none of this is surprising. It's truly amazing actually to witness the decay/decline of even the most liquid markets in the world in the past 12 months which so far hasn't abated at all. When top-of-book liquidity in S&P futures only allows ~$3-6M on the bid/offer versus 15-20 times that and more size in years past, one can understand how slippage and order execution disasters now occupy everyone's time...especially during any seriously active period when most all of the HFT algos pull bids/offers instantly. Unfortunately, I can't get that Bachman-Turner Overdrive song out of my head: You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet. When the world decides to demand exits, queue up BTO...

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