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Posted: Mon Jul 11, 2005 9:31 pm
Any thoughts on this product, anyone?
From their web site, it seems to have quite a different purpose from VT/TBB... an automated stock picker, not a strategy tester. My guess is its biggest flaw is that its probably untestable.
An acquaintance swears by it, so I thought I'd run it up the TTS flagpole...
Posted: Tue Jul 12, 2005 9:20 am
I have it and am also a Nirvana Club member. The product is a prospecting tool but I feel that too many people try and make it into a mechanical trading system. The Nirvana Club is dedicated to the development of a mechanical system but is not quite there yet. Each year they come out with better technology and some pretty innovative stuff. The Nirvana people are very nice and I think Ed Downs is one of the more honest and sincere vendors in the business. If you approach it from a prospecting aspect with an eye towards discretionary trading it is a pretty nice tool for the money.
Posted: Sat Dec 17, 2005 4:21 am
so, trend monkey,
How did you make out with omni-trader. I used it 3 years ago and found it to be absolutely fascinating............but worthless. I still cant figure out how they can show you a huge basket of signals backtested over years with over 85% winning accuracy on specific stocks, and cant even be right 50% of the time in the present for the same stock! It doesnt make sense. In fact, I found it more profitable to "fade" the signal. I used it for 3 months and after losing little bits of money here and there I got sick of it. It never had a winning week. Used their trade simulator game over years of mock trading and had same disasterous results. Lot of fun, though. Everyone else who ever posted about it all over the web has similar results. Maybe they are better now. Do you own the turtle software and if so, how are you doing with that?
Posted: Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:24 pm
Funny you ask this today - I bought OT a month ago and my trial just expired. I agree with what you said. Fascinating but I don't have any faith in its signals. I think its whole premise is flawed - it seems to me it takes curve-fitting to a whole different level.
For what it is though I consider it very nicely done - it never crashes, its fast, it has a really nice charting package built into it, outstanding GUI, well documented, good support, etc. I should throw in here that I am a software buff and I like buying this kind of stuff even if it has minimal trading value.
Anyway I decided to keep OT, but I will not use its signal features other than for entertainment. I will use its charting though, which I could also get from MetaStock, but I decided to keep OT partly because I was too lazy to return it.
One can't really compare OT and TBB in functional terms as they are very different. TBB's premise I completely agree with, (otherwise I wouldn't be on this forum would I?). As software, TBB is not quite as slick or as stable, and it costs 6x as much. But I use and will use it much more than I will ever use OT.
I read on their forum that OT is coming out with the ability to write your own systems which would make it much more comparable to TBB, but I suspect TBB will leave it in the dust in this regard. But this would be worth following up on.
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 2:45 am
Yes its ironic I posted today to you about omni trader. Question for you trend monkey: Why is no one talking about how well the moving average crossover system is doing or the turtle system on the cheaper trading blox software? In fact, I am shocked that this is not the main topic. It leads me to believe that they are not in the black by very much this year overall? Am I assuming right? Also, for a guy like me who was able to use omni trader but knows no coding, would i be able to tweak the 995 trading blox version without getting a headache? What do you use the TB software for, yourself?
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 8:29 am
I have "used" OT for a number of years, and have recently started learning TBB. You cannot compare the two. OT is a highly optimised program, whereby any "signals" it generates with all its fantastic "Advisor ratings", are likely to be gone the next day when you run the "to do list", and at best likely to produce a losing trade anyway!
I have long given up on the highly over optimised way that it trys to produce "the perfect trading signal". No software can do that, and as part of my evoloution as a trader, have learned the hard way that a simple system with appropriate money management applied will likely produce better results. OT contains no money management within, it just places a stop (not the same thing!).
As for TBB, it is a joy to use, you will gain far more playing with the various features, than anything you find in OT. It does take a while to learn, but when you see the detailed results, you will be amazed when you change various parameters what happens to your system results.
I would recommend that you get at least the Pro version, as this contains several built in trading systems for you to fiddle with. Have a look at the "Donchian" system, run it out of the can with the portfolio provided, and you have something like a 90% return. Then play with the settings and improve it...you will be amazed!
There is a demo version of TBB which you can download and use for a week's free trial. Definately worth a go.
One tip. Try changing the symbols in the futures portfolio. Weed out the ones that historically don't perform very well, and see how much difference that makes to the test run results.
Posted: Mon Dec 19, 2005 11:54 am
In case its unclear I agree pretty much 100% with what Turtle40 said - he said it a lot better than I did.
I can't comment on who talks about what and why but my observation (about the systems in TBB) on the markets I am interested in (large-cap US and Canadian stocks) is that the most obviously "good" systems are the MA crossover ones and possibly Stochastic. The others, in my testing, have been singularly uninteresting. Of course, your results WILL vary, eg. Futures may be much more favorable to the Turtle system.
I think it would be interesting to know how many people buy TBB and stick with the pre-supplied systems vs. tweaking or making their own. If you are unfamiliar with coding (at least to some extent) then I am not sure TBB is really worth it for you. In my view, to trust a system with real money, you have to know its every nuance, and you will never know that without understanding the code intimately. Otherwise, you are basically using a white-box system like a black-box one; you may as well buy WizeTrade! (Ok, I am being facetious there).
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 2:37 am
thanks for the heads up. Where can I find the link do download the demo. I probably would want to get the simple turtle system first and then upgrade later on with profits. (Bad idea?) As the extra grand would come out of my trading capital. I said before I have done fabulous in stocks, but it has all been managing a relatives money. Also, trend monkey and others advise i learn coding, another advises I learn excel to use trading blox. I dont get it. I watched the demo movie clip Tim recommended and I see nothing that would suggest a need for coding or excel knowledge. I just want to test the default on the 2 systems included with different time frame bars, move the actual time of testing around and maybe tweak the moving averages back and forth. Whats the big deal? Am I missing something? Thanks everyone for all your help and advice. I believe one of the turtles was quoted in the trend trading book as saying "I want something so simple it will fit on the back of an envelope." Hmmmm...coding and excel doesnt seem to fit that requirement. lol
Posted: Wed Dec 21, 2005 6:47 am
I cant remember where the demo link is . Suggest you email Tim on the TBB website support area. Maybe they don't offer this any more.
I wonder when you say that you have done "fabulous in stocks", why you want to move into trading futures. Is it not better to stick with what is working and already profitable for you?
As far as purchasing the different versions goes, I think the general advice that you will find on this forum, is trading futures requires a lot of capital, maybe 100k upwards. If this is the level you are at, the a couple of thousand dollars for the software should not be an issue.
Personally I am no programmer, I do have a basic understanding of excel, but I am quite happy to experiment with the Pro version, until I feel the need to build my own Blox. I think it is easy to lose sight of what this is all about, ie building a usable trading system.
I still reccomend that you go for the Pro version. You have 10 systems already there for you. You can change parameters all day long and see how to improve a system, this is a brilliant way to get real knowledge, without risking any capital.
You may also want to download the TBB pdf manuals, they are on the TBB website, as reading about the product features may help you decide if TBB is for you or not.
So finally, I have had TBB for about a month now. I have really enjoyed using the program, and I fully intend to finish the trading system that I am working on and start trading it with my own money very soon. After all that is what we are all aiming for!
Good luck and Merry Christmas.