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Exit Signals - Turtle Exits? Others?
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2003 6:49 pm
I think I have a unique problem. I have an outstanding entry signal generator finding me the best trends in the making and keeping me away from "non-movers" BUT I am missing a good exit strategy.
Now I wonder if anyone of you did any research in this area and has some empirical proof that the turtle rules are good enough to indicate a folding trend or maybe found other good indicators for a stopping trend.
Thanks for any feedback.
MODERATOR'S NOTE: Moved from Original Turtles forum and changed subject
Posted: Mon May 05, 2003 3:11 am
I find that I match/design the exit based on looking at charts.
I look at enough charts for entries and then try to synthesize what would be a good way of exiting that will quickly get out of losers and that will capture the most profits.
It is a very iterative approach. Simulate the trades, look at the entries on the charts, check out the exits on the charts, see if there is some way to improve, tweak the exit algorithm, simulate the trades, ...
I find that many types of exits work well but that certain ones work much better with certain entry signals.
I guess that means my advice to you is: Try a bunch out, including the simple N-days against you approach of the turtles, see which one works better. Look at the charts and invent a new one, see if it works.
Posted: Mon May 05, 2003 10:33 am
this is what I am currently doing. I was hoping to hear / see a more quantitative approach.
I get the feeling that creating great exit signals is as much an art as the development of great entry signals is.
Consistency and personal comfort
Posted: Wed Feb 11, 2004 10:24 pm
I decided to stick with ATR multiples(turtle rules) to exit the market and I really didnt't worry so much about not having made that extra buck or so.
You have to feel confortable with the trading and if it suits you mentally than why ride the rollercoaster when you can coast along as if you were driving a caddy. I am actually studying and researching the rate of speed of the trends. Acceleration and deceleration and how news affects the trend. IE as prev mentioned, no news on new highs equivicates a sustained run on the upside or downside. Press release comes out and the market is blasting paper in your face. I also noticed that stocks trading below 5.00 offer greater price action and potential chaos. In order to adjust for this i reduced my risk to 1%. Our goal is to continuaousl cycle through investments untill we lock onto winning trends and add to the profitable positions. Entry signals by the way, absolutely make no difference. You could be so wrong on the entry but if you don't learn to exit, you could be dead. I am spending more time focussing on refining the exit. I equally agree with c.f. thoughts on looking at the charts. I scan through hubndreds of them looking specifically at where the trend currently lies for the following time frames: 3 mths, 6 mths, 1 yr, 2 yr and say a longer term chart being 5 years. I am looking to see how healthy the trend is from a very short term perspective to very long term perspective.