General discussions about futures.
13 posts • Page 1 of 1
as price goes up, volume goes down -- not healthy.Chuck B wrote:...notice anything a bit bizarre about this chart?
and if "buy the rumor, sell the news" holds then tomorrow's iPhone 5 announcement would likely be at least a short-term top.
for future ref: Mon. Sep. 10 intra-day high in the 1st 10 minutes was the all-time high ~$683.29 -- see 10-minute bar chart, below.
[Edit] Generally, you'd like volume to maintain or even increase as price climbs, not diminish as in this case. But AAPL is so big and so high-priced that some lowering of volume should be expected. And a seven-bagger (~$100 to ~$700) certainly is healthy. A 100-bagger (AAPL @~$7 in 2003 to ~$700) is even better.[/edit]
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Last edited by stamo on Wed Sep 12, 2012 5:38 pm, edited 4 times in total.
For the most part, I did too...not really avoid but not pay great attention to I would say. Thanks to being Corzined, my focus changed dramatically, and I'm actually thankful for that. There are so many more opportunities, and many equity options markets are pretty darn liquid. I've not traded a futures contract since last October after more than 20 years of futures market activity. I don't miss it and am actually glad I've not experienced some of the ridiculous, illiquid, wicking action in stuff like the Dax over the past year. With central banks manipulating the financial world like no one ever thought possible in even the remotest dream, these (financials, stock index, metals, and energy market futures) things are a mess these days...living on a prayer.trackstar wrote:Stop picking tops and dance till the music stops!
Thanks for the appl tip Chuck, but I avoid stocks....
Equities provide no safeguard against CB intervention. Has not the BOJ openly purchased securities? Many claim the Fed and UST have done so "covertly", presumably many other CBs have as well. There's only so long they can intervene in the same markets until they have to start broadening out to other ones; look at the PBOC's expansion into currencies like AUD, NZD, etc... or the SNB's into SEK and NOK.Chuck B wrote:With central banks manipulating the financial world like no one ever thought possible in even the remotest dream, these (financials, stock index, metals, and energy market futures) things are a mess these days...living on a prayer.
In the end it's probably not all that much different than OPEC intervening in the oil markets.
Intervention by governments is nothing new and certainly is going to get worse as people's (irrational and misplaced) fears of having recessions compound.
Intervention is simply an unavoidable fact of life, a cost of operating in speculative markets. We can't get away from it, complaining about it won't solve anything, we can just move on...
That wasn't my thought process. I've found more diversification and better trading opportunities in equities (i.e. trading things like OCZ and FDX announcements last week using my short term system) while the indexes have collapsed into extremely low volume, illiquid wicks and very poor (based on my systems) trading opportunity during these low and declining volume uptrends where intraday volatility falls to incredibly small levels (i.e. oftentimes the 3min bar, 50 bar ATR is in the range of a bit over two ticks and often under 3 ticks -- such crap is worthless to me as a trader). Opening up my vision to seriously consider equities and equity options more actively has been a great opportunity since I want to go where the action exists as opposed to watching paint dry before getting shellacked with a 18ATR (3min bar) wick in an index future.Aaron01 wrote:Equities provide no safeguard against CB intervention.Chuck B wrote:With central banks manipulating the financial world like no one ever thought possible in even the remotest dream, these (financials, stock index, metals, and energy market futures) things are a mess these days...living on a prayer.
Hence my whole thought about individual stocks is that I can go where the movement exists and a decent reward to risk ratio can be found. Example is OCZ last week where I caught a tad over 20% move in the stock in three days with a very small entry risk. Similar stuff, although not as large a move in the underlying, has presented itself to me recently in FDX, MCD, INTC (short side) to name a few. All the while these index futures do nothing the vast majority of the time, develop huge ratios of risk to potential favorable movement, and volumes just dwindle away. I'm sure for others with different objectives they are having heyday trading ES, FESX, FDAX or what have you -- just not my systems and style I suppose.