Instrument Choice for Year Ahead

Discussions about personal psychology for the individual trader.
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Chris67
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Instrument Choice for Year Ahead

Post by Chris67 » Thu Dec 22, 2011 7:57 am

Anyone toyed with the idea of looking abck at 2011 - finding their most profitable trades and removing those instruments from the portfolio for 2012 ?
I maybe forced not to trade Gilts next year (as a UK fund we need to report to the FSA - So my backoffice said to me - your choice - pay a reporting or firm remove from portfolio ) I said obvioulsy Ill continue to trade them - but it set me thinking as Gilts been just about my biggest winner this year = maybe I should take em out - maybe I should backtest always doing this right across the portfolio ?
C

sluggo
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Post by sluggo » Thu Dec 22, 2011 10:15 am

That might add several more parameters to the mechanical trading system.
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rhc
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Post by rhc » Fri Dec 23, 2011 2:05 am

If you remove the most profitable 2011 instruments from your 2012 trading you are making a forecast that those 2011 winners will be 2012 duds and this forecast then, perhaps, flies in the face of your motto;
[quote]“forecasting markets is as futile as forecasting the weather. Personally I gurantee(sic) it will rain , but when and by how much - I haven't got a clueâ€

Chris67
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Post by Chris67 » Fri Dec 23, 2011 4:36 am

Thanks to both of you for your comments

Yes you are both right - Im just musing
I think taking some money off the table in those instruments that have performed best over the last 250 days may be something to test - let the test say if its right

On another topic (sort of) this all came about due to teh necessity now to report trades to the FSA in various instruments (The FSA cannot clearly state which those instruments are and teh people we have to pay miney to every month to report trades on our behalf - cannot clearly state which those instruments are - one more example of the farsical nature of EU regulation on financial markets) - I presume other people on the forum are aware of the legal responsibilty to report certain trades to their regulator - even if nobody knows what they are

kianti
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Post by kianti » Fri Dec 23, 2011 4:46 am

BTP futures

At some point the ECB will engineer a rescue plan.
Same story as LTCM and Euro 1996-1998.

LTCM was the fund that was too big to fail, the brightest star in the financial world. Built on genius, by legends of Wall Street and two Nobel laureates, it spiralled to ever greater heights, commanding unimaginable wealth. When it fell to earth in September 1998 it shook the world.

Right mate!!! they made free money with the BTP-Bund convergence play,
using all possible illegal means, insider trading, humongous market squeezes,
then the bean-counters professors tried to trade in a fair way,
we all know what happened

I'm pretty sure the Scrooges in Frankfurt right now are setting up some offshore account
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kianti
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Post by kianti » Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:18 am

kianti wrote:.... at some point the ECB will engineer a rescue plan
OK they're starting....,

6 months Euribor is 1.65%
Italian 6 months T-bill was 6,504% at previous auction
Italian 6 months T-bill today is 3,521%

free money for fat-cats-bankers :shock: :shock: :shock:
.... plus fat year-end bonus for the though job

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