Search found 152 matches

by Moto moto
Wed Apr 28, 2010 5:03 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Black swan
Replies: 43
Views: 21403

I have always had a rule for what to do when there is an extreme event - eg; a plane into a building. That rule is halve all existing trades - even if they are profitable. Assess and then probably exit most positions. This is only on a true black swan event. In all my trading years, this has only ha...
by Moto moto
Mon Apr 26, 2010 1:10 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Correlation - Inputs vs. Outputs
Replies: 10
Views: 6845

The testing I ran factored in correlation - measured not in any scientific way, but more along the lines of metals, grains, precious metals, rates, equites, FX etc; Never really went much further than this. It clearly reduced volatility and also returns. There was no profit taking involved just limi...
by Moto moto
Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:05 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Correlation - Inputs vs. Outputs
Replies: 10
Views: 6845

my 2 cents.....are you trading correlation or trends? While it seems that most systems work better with more futures markets being covered, could it just be that you don't need as many and hence correlation becomes less of a problem. The equity curve may just not be as smooth. Sometimes it seems tha...
by Moto moto
Fri Apr 16, 2010 5:35 am
Forum: Stocks
Topic: Where to find the constituents of indexs?
Replies: 3
Views: 6249

go to the exchange websites
by Moto moto
Fri Apr 09, 2010 4:33 am
Forum: Brokers
Topic: Brokerage outside of the US
Replies: 6
Views: 7717

does modern society have to be like this..... Ideally no - but with 6 billion other people all wanting more and more (and can you blame them) unfortunately this is going to get tougher. If you want a land that time forgot yet with modernity (and I say this as a compliment) New Zealand - (only issue ...
by Moto moto
Sat Mar 13, 2010 5:16 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: London Metals Exchange data & backtesting
Replies: 15
Views: 13871

"Oh dear me, I can see I am going to have to do some work." One of the best lines I have read on any trading forum ever. thanks. (interesting discussion none the less - the difference between reality and fantasy for many systems that seem to fail in the real world most likely lies in the q...
by Moto moto
Mon Mar 08, 2010 4:15 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Contract Information You Track That CSI Does Not
Replies: 2
Views: 2521

We had a quick look at which months the rolls occurred - as its not necessarily the front month. Yes open interest and volume can pick this up, but when looking at the months of offer - sometimes it can be confusing initially when a month is skipped as the front month - not such as issue for the cur...
by Moto moto
Mon Mar 01, 2010 12:34 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Volatility Exit
Replies: 5
Views: 3335

Slightly off topic, but I know of a few discretionary traders who actually cut all their positions back - even if they are longer term holds - when their PL gets excessive. It works for them even if just as a fudge. I also saw another systematic money manager in the UK that seemed to run a portfolio...
by Moto moto
Tue Feb 02, 2010 9:45 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: System Longevity
Replies: 22
Views: 13589

When it comes to managing other peoples money - its a different ballgame - marketing and contacts can make all the difference to size - and this is not dependant on performance. Given the little I know about trend trading compared to others here, please correct me if I am wrong.... If the biggest dr...
by Moto moto
Wed Jan 27, 2010 3:55 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Is trading moral and ethical?
Replies: 25
Views: 39690

I am going to dig a ditch to catch a banker. I hear these wild animals have a secret pot of gold that if you tickle their stomach they will give up in an instant.
Is this ethical?
by Moto moto
Wed Jan 20, 2010 8:04 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: As a Man Thinketh - James Allen
Replies: 12
Views: 19958

The brain that changes itself - great book, and covers the scientific reasoning for why all the other books work. I also just finished a little book I found called "the winning investment habits of warren buffett and George Soros" - Mark Tier. (similar to many ideas of trend trading) Point...
by Moto moto
Mon Jan 18, 2010 12:23 pm
Forum: Data Providers and other non testing software
Topic: Synthetic CSI Spreads
Replies: 2
Views: 3294

I did this the slow way in excel, by just taking the last trade, and we in putted it into my own system. (I dont own TB yet) Jez Liberty is correct in his last paragraph. For accuracy using the H and L is largely irrelevant unless using tick data, as you need to match the timing of when they occurre...