Traders' Roundtable

Sorry for the confusion (the result of clumsy copy and pasting). The "other" post can be seen here: http://tradersplace.net/forum/thread/15 ... s-markets/

It gives some charts of rolling period volatility on various real data series.

Synthetic Stock Data: how to "correctly" simulate volatility Now take a look at a chart of the volatility of daily returns for the same rolling periods on a synthetic data series created using GBM and (in the GBM calculations) a fixed, static figure for volatility. Take a look also at the ...

1) How long is a piece of string? Boils down to experimentation: interest rates, PE Ratio, debt to equity, you name it.
2) No, I only trade on price.
3) St Louis Fed, Bank of England, Central Banks in general.

Agreed...TB is excellent for combining fundamental with technical rules.

Yes...realised I had missed something obvious. I'll plot the other.

Even in a strong Bull or Bear market, it seems a bit unlikely to me that the daily closing prices of a particular index or instrument would “closeâ€

In his interesting article “The Main Cause of Failure of Some Popular Technical Trading Methodsâ€

Many thanks to all for your thoughts and contributions. As I have said repeatedly, I have no doubt whatsoever that there are trends and that such trends are caused by supply and demand in the economy and human behaviour. I do not believe in the EMH. I do not believe that the markets are a markov cha...

I have no doubt whatsoever that there are "trends" - periods of time when prices go from A to B without too much retracement or noise. I have also no doubt that trends are seen in every timeframe - that such patterns are fractal. It is true that you can not see a trend until it is over - a...

Superb article; philosophically in line with my own far less august reasoning.

My recent work has been designed to penetrate the heart of this topic: I have discussed and back tested random entries at some length, I have queried the use of back testing and I have tried to explain why, over the past 40 years, trend following seems to have become increasingly difficult. One of m...

I quite agree; no disrespect intended but if I want a shrink I'll go find one. If I want trading articles and chat I don't see much value in FAQ. Some of the other stuff on Ed's site was very valuable though and I think he should extend that. I am about to make a separate post on the topic but will ...

Thanks for the tip off. I like Ed but I confess that I do find FAQ somewhat difficult.

Have you looked at any themed equity portfolios under this theory? like large caps, international, dividend, etc......... No, I must say I have not. What I did do a few years back was to look at sector rotation using indices and sub indices in the equity market but never using random entries. I was...

For me the basic takeaway from testing random entries with exits which simply run profits and cut losses is that, in the very broadest terms, trend following works. Or at least has worked in the past on markets for which we have data. In the past, markets have trended for long periods of time in a w...

I ran a few more tests using runs of 5,000 tests rather than 1,000 in an effort to make the results a little more robust. This time looking at the efficacy of using a long term trend filter. Are the entries still random using a long term trend filter? Well, yes, to the extent there is no entry logic...

Relevant Blox (by Sluggo) available for download here: viewtopic.php?t=3636&highlight=tharp+basso

Oh well, here is a link if anyone is interested. Looks a bit rude but since I am unable to post the full article here..............
http://tradersplace.net/forum/thread/74 ... 1-to-2012/

In my post “Trend Efficiency Indexâ€

Random Entries with LTTF Exits 2011/21012

In my post “Trend Efficiency Indexâ€