Search found 147 matches

by Chuck B
Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:12 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Guar gum
Replies: 12
Views: 8614

Stop picking tops and dance till the music stops! Thanks for the appl tip Chuck, but I avoid stocks.... For the most part, I did too...not really avoid but not pay great attention to I would say. Thanks to being Corzined, my focus changed dramatically, and I'm actually thankful for that. :shock: Th...
by Chuck B
Tue Sep 11, 2012 1:47 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Guar gum
Replies: 12
Views: 8614

trackstar wrote:Wow, how nice it would be to have an asset trending like that....
Well... :D

By the way...notice anything a bit bizarre about this chart? :wink:
by Chuck B
Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:35 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 18024

mojojojo wrote:Knight is up 25% at the moment. Maybe they found a partner.
The liquidity needed to get out for others. :lol:
by Chuck B
Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:40 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 18024

Looks like it's bankruptcy time for Knight -- as expected nobody wants to step in before the full flush:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/knight-co ... asset-sale
by Chuck B
Thu Aug 02, 2012 3:29 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 18024

You mean the one saying 1.75 a side? Now that´s a good rate isn´t it! +15 years of clearing with no problems whatsoever is worth mentioning also. Just happy to share that experience. That´s all. Wow, you're not paying $3.50 a turn are you? :shock: I had a 10+year great experience with GNI/Man/MF...
by Chuck B
Thu Aug 02, 2012 1:22 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 18024

hmmm, my thoughts? I understand, through the media grapevine and from an article in WSJ, capital investors are looking at Knight. I think Knight is a good, cleanly operated company and look like an attractive option for an equity firm to partner up with. In return for capital, gives us a stake in y...
by Chuck B
Thu Aug 02, 2012 12:40 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 18024

Yeah, after yesterday, the last thing I would want is to be involved with a firm owned by Knight. Knight is on the hook, apparently, for their own $450M loss in trading screwups, and add to that the lawsuits that are coming. Get out while the getting is good.
by Chuck B
Fri Jul 27, 2012 8:35 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 18024

I just got the latest offer from people trying to buy MFG account claims, and they are now offering 93%. For some reason, I got a check that brings up one account to 80-something%, but I've not received one for the other account. I guess I need to contact them. There's a part of me that expects it's...
by Chuck B
Thu Jun 14, 2012 2:12 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

Look at some of the European markets today! A simple entry on a 3min chart and then a hold to the close with a TF exit. So short stocks long bonds on an intraday basis from the open today? Yeah, not necessarily doing both unless you account for the essentially 1.0 correlation of those positions, bu...
by Chuck B
Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:43 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

Notice how the US fixed income couldn't make new highs on this move down into 3:30 in equities. One easy spread to follow is SPY/TLT for example. Anyway, here is the exit point which violates holding short equity positions still open into the close with trend exit well above and trailing. Flat now a...
by Chuck B
Mon Jun 11, 2012 1:21 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

Look at some of the European markets today! A simple entry on a 3min chart and then a hold to the close with a TF exit. So short stocks long bonds on an intraday basis from the open today? Yeah, not necessarily doing both unless you account for the essentially 1.0 correlation of those positions, bu...
by Chuck B
Mon Jun 11, 2012 12:58 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

A silly question perhaps and much will depend on the nature of your exits but what sort of trade holding period are you talking about? As to last night's set ups in bonds and equities what positions did they lead to and what was the envisaged holding period? Fade the move, fade the status quo "news...
by Chuck B
Mon Jun 11, 2012 8:56 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

Just another idea -- many here have created decent exit rules and position sizing strategies. If a "trend" as defined by your exit (mostly) is going to exist, and you have the ability to enter it at an appropriate time, you have decent odds of capturing the favorable price movement. Take your exit r...
by Chuck B
Sun Jun 10, 2012 10:34 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

I should also mention the other possibility in mind -- the possibility that long term TF works better than it ever has during this continual fake pricing environment. :D What better action for markets to take other than to shake out all the doubters and easy drifters right before a period of perform...
by Chuck B
Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:51 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

Back on topic at hand -- as discussed elsewhere on this board recently (perhaps in the section that is now banned from those of us not owning TB...even if we contributed significantly to the original s/w design), I do think it is a bit of a stretch to even begin to compare the history of market data...
by Chuck B
Sun Jun 10, 2012 8:42 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Strong May Results for Mechanical/Trend Following Systems
Replies: 59
Views: 28135

I have a large collection of posts both from Chuck Le Beau's old site and from the old Trading Recipes list. I have not looked at either collection for some years. It would be interesting to see how some of the other posts have stood up to the test of time. I remember way back ~1995 when Chuck was ...
by Chuck B
Mon May 07, 2012 9:52 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Short-Term vs Long-Term Trading
Replies: 16
Views: 17269

Re: combining timeframes

Interestingly, Cynthia Kase has written about sharpening one's enties and exits by using short-term time frames for these, and longer-term frames for monitoring positions (Kase, Cynthia A. Trading With the Odds 1996 McGraw Hill Chapt 4). She also has some proprietary technical indicators which I ca...
by Chuck B
Sat May 05, 2012 8:35 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: Signal or gap slippage
Replies: 3
Views: 4119

Note also that missing getting on board a mother of a trend will severely limit performance also -- much more destabilizing than simply taking a small loss. If a market is going to give you a 30R move, and you've missed that entry by worrying about a small loss so you miss your low-risk entry point,...
by Chuck B
Wed May 02, 2012 8:03 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Dead Turtles
Replies: 92
Views: 83719

Yeah, that back adjusted chart looks like it has issues imo. In STIRs your choice of rollover date strongly effects your sensitivity to either near term changes in STIR or longer term expected changes in STIR. You need to use a professional piece of software, perhaps CSI, and create backadjusted dat...
by Chuck B
Wed Apr 25, 2012 5:46 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Stop order execution
Replies: 4
Views: 2559

Upon further interaction with said brokerage (after being told different stories than what was specified on their web site, and finding different definitions of stop order execution on different sections of the web site, and finding different execution for "listed securities" versus OTC), the net of...