Search found 143 matches

by Chuck B
Fri Jun 23, 2017 9:10 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Portfolio Heat
Replies: 3
Views: 609

Re: Portfolio Heat

One other (of the many) aspect of portfolio heat is the consideration of scaling out (reducing open risk), using individual asset risk percentage of the total portfolio, during the progress of the current bar. For example, consider that you can calculate tomorrow's (next bar's) exit (stop) location ...
by Chuck B
Fri Jun 21, 2013 4:12 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: London Metals Exchange
Replies: 23
Views: 19991

It's been 10 years since my post in this thread, but you may want to hunt down that book I mentioned on the LME. It will most likely convince you to stick with other markets if nothing has changed since then.
by Chuck B
Sun Feb 10, 2013 8:32 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: A step in the right direction...
Replies: 1
Views: 2115

That's fantastic news!
by Chuck B
Sat Jan 19, 2013 8:12 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Seykota's Essentials Card - Revisited
Replies: 6
Views: 6360

I wonder what 'Slick Willy' would have said re: these Essentials? :lol: Remember? He had his own Essentials: 1) Vigorously deny the allegation. 2) Launch a brutal counter-attack against your opponent (i.e. vast right-wing conspiracy). 3) Then change the subject (i.e. this is where you rise to a "hi...
by Chuck B
Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:56 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

Link didn't work for non-subscribers, but the way to get it is to highlight/copy the title, Google search it, then click the first link in Google. For whatever reason, WSJ allows Google to index its pay site -- works great for those who want to read articles there.
by Chuck B
Mon Nov 26, 2012 9:07 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

In a way we all live in a land of make believe. :wink: When you think about it a bit and distill it all down, EVERYTHING we believe in, expect to happen, know is the truth, etc, is all simply beliefs we have adopted, either consciously but mostly unconsciously through our life's experiences. The key...
by Chuck B
Wed Nov 21, 2012 9:09 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

Your thoughts on using as much data as possible are also something I have given much thought to. Makes me wonder if one could have millions of data points, and stick to a single system that works across all of it... are you condemning yourself to using something that works "on average" across all m...
by Chuck B
Tue Nov 20, 2012 7:27 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

Hey, yeah, I've received 80% back on two accounts, so those are still in their Corzine imposed 20% drawdown, and I'm thinking we're not getting back much more, but time will tell I guess. It took long enough to get to this level. One account that was 100% US seg had received back 80% level about two...
by Chuck B
Tue Nov 20, 2012 6:56 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

Hey Cymond. Agree, the markets have changed but what has changed more is the notion of trust - used to be that you could trust your broker and their FCM, in fact the whole business was essentially founded on trust. Corzine and Wassendorf have done all they can to destroy that concept. I guess that ...
by Chuck B
Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:51 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

Mark, No doubt the character of a market changes once it goes electronic, but I'm not sure I would discount prior period data too much just because of that change. In reality, we all need a few thousand years of market data to even get close to some great realization of long term trendfollowing in m...
by Chuck B
Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:04 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

AFJ/Chuck - great points, and it makes me wonder... say things have not changed but are just this way for (let's say for sake of argument) 15 years then revert back to "normal". Why is a 15-year time span where things aren't the same considered an exception? For many, that is almost 1/2 or more of ...
by Chuck B
Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:12 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19208

I have no answers or great insight other than all the others excellent comments and insights on this same subject (TF) over the past year or so, but we do know one thing is profoundly "different" than anytime in our lifetimes: the rate of change of total credit growth. If you just look at the US tot...
by Chuck B
Thu Oct 11, 2012 8:57 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Seykota's FAQ
Replies: 38
Views: 18021

They seem to have had a difference of opinion on the role of professional psychologists in the "process" as Ed calls it. They did a seminar together way back in the early days, and disagreements related to what each understood their agreement to be resulted in the split. That seminar grew into the ...
by Chuck B
Thu Oct 11, 2012 6:26 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Seykota's FAQ
Replies: 38
Views: 18021

Adding to those good comments just now... I'll present the Chuck B corollary: the easier it is to follow a system, the more likely it is a long-term negative expectation system. [/b] One example would be a system that profits from selling short option premiums, even with a well-designed attempt to h...
by Chuck B
Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:03 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Seykota's FAQ
Replies: 38
Views: 18021

I feel IF a System is Good - trader will have no problem in following it..Only when system is not good enough this problem arises Are you saying this based on experience, or expectation? Many good traders report that they have trouble following their system. Many trading books talk about the same p...
by Chuck B
Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:39 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Guar gum
Replies: 12
Views: 6423

With central banks manipulating the financial world like no one ever thought possible in even the remotest dream, these (financials, stock index, metals, and energy market futures) things are a mess these days...living on a prayer. Equities provide no safeguard against CB intervention. That wasn't ...
by Chuck B
Wed Sep 12, 2012 10:12 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Guar gum
Replies: 12
Views: 6423

Stop picking tops and dance till the music stops! Thanks for the appl tip Chuck, but I avoid stocks.... For the most part, I did too...not really avoid but not pay great attention to I would say. Thanks to being Corzined, my focus changed dramatically, and I'm actually thankful for that. :shock: Th...
by Chuck B
Tue Sep 11, 2012 1:47 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Guar gum
Replies: 12
Views: 6423

trackstar wrote:Wow, how nice it would be to have an asset trending like that....
Well... :D

By the way...notice anything a bit bizarre about this chart? :wink:
by Chuck B
Fri Aug 03, 2012 9:35 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 13200

mojojojo wrote:Knight is up 25% at the moment. Maybe they found a partner.
The liquidity needed to get out for others. :lol:
by Chuck B
Thu Aug 02, 2012 8:40 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Does Anybody Feel Safe?
Replies: 34
Views: 13200

Looks like it's bankruptcy time for Knight -- as expected nobody wants to step in before the full flush:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/knight-co ... asset-sale