Traders' Roundtable

Turbowagon wrote:What, nobody trades Milk here?!? I guess it's just me and a bunch of farmers responsible for all 141 trades last Friday.

that's a good sign.

Spectre wrote:coffee short position is making money. anyone else system reading 'short' on coffee?

i am long.

BARLI wrote:

efficiency wrote: Edward, are you taking about a book "Trade Like Jesse Livermore"?

no, i am talking about the original book "how to trade stocks" circa 1940.

I own one of Smitten's books. It's repetiitve fluff now in storage. Nice photos though.

I believe he was married thrice, the last being a Ziegfield girl several years his junior.

He may have not died broke, but he did die by his own hand, and the bulk of the last decade was absent former ...

My question is how you would measure these high vol events going forward. So, sometimes the fed speaks, and nothing happens, but sometimes the fed, or the CPI or some other economic event causes a huge vol move.

Also, aren't there so many of these events that it becomes very difficult to employ a ...

many outstanding trend-followers i know often go flat before major econ reports and fed decisions.

LeapFrog wrote:Don't want to get off topic, but this has to be an example of when modeling riks just might not capture an event like today in OJ...

this is on topic.

this is also an example where modeling risk DOES capture an event like today. ask stancramer: he is long OJ.

billpritjr wrote:Jan 07 Orange Juice broke out today, to 16 year highs.

do you take the trade?

Anyone's trading Wheat? I am biased its going to 500 cents and then sells off, but we'll see

yes, and i like it.

your prediction is gutsy.

in general:
this structure means up this much.
that structure means no more.
but never this structure means up this much and no more.

i like to see wheat ...

billpritjr wrote:Dennis or Eckhardt?

both.

and also statistical significance tests show this behavior.

Anyone's trading Wheat? I am biased its going to 500 cents and then sells off, but we'll see

yes, and i like it.

your prediction is gutsy.

in general:
this structure means up this much.
that structure means no more.
but never this structure means up this much and no more.

i like to see wheat ...

I re-read Market Wizards for the 88th time and observed that Paul Tudor Jones claimed to have gone big T-Bonds when he and Peter Borish "saw" the coming 1987 stock market crash.

However, unless I am missing something, a check of historical T-Bond charts for 1987-1988 do not show any huge uptrends ...

rabidric wrote:i used to have a conviction that markets must be/were fractal and scale free...

the truth is much more interesting.

i understand what you mean by scale free.

i am interested in hearing your thoughts on fractals and the markets.

LeapFrog wrote:By comparison, I would say the slippage in coffee is worse than OJ.

yes.

Edward Kim, it's not that I doubt what you say.It's just that my broker is
"notoriously bad". At times I have experienced fills more that one cent above my buy stops. Relative to the other markets I trade, OJ is the slippage leader.

if that occurs on a regular basis, that OJ skid does sound ...

I’ve been passively watching the bull market in Orange Juice for some time. Unfortunately, the liquidity of that market is notoriously bad (which is why I’ve only watched vs. traded it). I’m just curious if anybody has actually been trading the OJ move and can share what kind of slippage they ...

[quote="futurestrader111"]Many traders were surprised yesterday when trading the mini-silver contract at the CBOT. Why???? Because the CBOT had a rule that said if your stop was surpassed by 3 cents before it was filled that the stop was cancelled!!!!!

This is insane, the CBOT is basically saying ...

damian wrote:It's just a matter of time.

http://finance.google.com/finance

i like the way the individual charts scroll~

Christian's helpful table above may help to answer a question which always tends to puzzle those newer to this game. Which goes something as follows: how come when my tests show that you can turn $50,000 into $10zillion in 20 years, the records of all the CTAs I have looked at suck?

We might also ...

i agree with everyone: margin/equity doesn't help very much.

(core equity minus skid) / total equity

these ratios show what kind of drawdowns you can experience if everything is stopped out now.