Post Some Results / Test It Yourself

Discussions about the testing and simulation of mechanical trading systems using historical data and other methods. Trading Blox Customers should post Trading Blox specific questions in the Customer Support forum.
Post Reply
shakyamuni
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:44 am
Location: Somewhere, Hyperspace

Post Some Results / Test It Yourself

Post by shakyamuni »


Please don't let this interesting subject degrade into a flame war...

Maybe we can encourage one another to undertake testing and simulation in a motivational way as opposed to an adversarial way. :D
Last edited by shakyamuni on Sat Jan 08, 2005 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Forum Mgmnt
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 1842
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2003 11:02 am
Contact:

Post by Forum Mgmnt »

As with most every area of human debate, there are merits to both sides.

Yes, there are some people out there who want others to do all the work and who are lazy. I've seen many more of them elsewhere than on this forum, but they do exist. Those who have toiled for years on their own to get answers may be annoyed (or worse) by those who don't seem to have the same initiative.

At the same time, for those who have never programmed, the idea of doing extensive testing can seem like an incredible, perhaps insurmountable obstacle.

Further, I believe there is considerable merit in discussing ideas before jumping into testing. There is also no real benefit in doing work to find information that is common knowledge or easily available just by asking.

I invite those of us who have done a lot of testing and find it beneficial to lead by example, rather than negatively admonishing others for not testing. Perhaps we can highlight our own testing, what we have learned, and why we would not even consider accepting an answer from the forum without making some verification of the idea and the results on our own before trading using that idea.

This approach might be more effective than a flip "Test it yourself you lazy jerk". Yes, I know that no one was actually that rude, but depending on the cultural background of the readers, and given the notorious ease of offending in this very low emotional bandwidth medium, it might have appeared that way to some. We might all find it beneficial to give others the benefit of the doubt.

I invite those who have not done much testing to be more open to the idea. If you aren't ready or inclined to buy a trading-specific testing product, start out with Excel. You can certainly get your feet wet and many find this a more approachable medium that other environments. Don't go too far with this without considering alternatives because actual programming, at some point, becomes much easier than programming a complex concept in Excel.

- Forum Mgmnt
stancramer
Roundtable Fellow
Roundtable Fellow
Posts: 60
Joined: Sat Feb 07, 2004 10:34 am
Location: Washington DC

Post by stancramer »

Some people, particularly those new to "A forum for mechanical system traders" (such as new purchasers of Veritrader), are still looking for a Guru to tell them This Is What You Should Do. These nice people haven't yet realized down in the core of their own being, that they are responsible for their own trading. They also haven't fully appreciated the amazing power of a tool like Veritrader, which can answer a lot of questions objectively. With data rather than the opinions of others. It doesn't yet occur to them that whenever they have a question about trading, they could think "hey, maybe I can learn about this by running some tests in Veritrader (or other software)." A reminder, "hey maybe you could test that," will jog their thinking.

Larry Williams gives out mechanical systems in his books and seminars. He gets dozens of phonecalls from nervous people who ask, "My situation is (X), what should I do?" and he gives the same answer again and again: "Follow the system." Quite a number of people even call and say "Larry I know you are going to tell me to follow the system, but my situation is (Z) and what should I do?" to which Larry replies "Follow the system".

Some would say this is harsh or aggressive or needlessly repetitive. Some tender souls might even feel they are being "flamed" by Larry. But he is just telling each individual what she/he needs to hear: follow the system. Some of Larry's callers need to hear it many times, apparently.

The same is true of people who don't yet realize they can operate from data rather than opinion. They need to be reminded: You Could Test That. Just as in the Larry Williams case, there may be some who need to be reminded several times. It may bore those who overhear the same conversation again and again and again: You Could Test That. But to the person who asks the question, rather than the bystanders, it is a special message with significant meaning.

Then there are those who can't afford software, or can't write programs, or can't afford historical data for testing, or simply don't have the time to perform computer studies. They feel it is appropriate for them to ask a Guru What Should I Do because they certainly can't figure it out for themselves. When it is suggested that trading based on the opinions of others is probably unwise, they are especially frustrated (occasionally angry) because they don't have any other way to create a trading approach. Telling one of these people "you can find out the answer to that for yourself, using Veritrader" is like pouring gasoline on a fire. It is exactly what they don't want to hear.

Larry Williams has chosen to stick with a 3-word mantra, which he endlessly repeats without variation: Follow The System. Another choice might be to give the same answer but use slightly different phrasing each time. This would provide welcome variation to the ears of those who overhear these conversations hundreds of times.

"You Could Test That"
"Do you think there's a way to use Veritrader to learn more about that?"
"I reckon the computer might be a pretty good tool to help you figure that out"
"Golly if I were in your shoes, I'd think about doing (description of test) in Veritrader to find out"
"You know, us mechanical-system gang kind of prefer to figure these sorts of things out by doing mechanical-system tests. Maybe if you tried X or Y or Z in Veritrader, it might give you the answer"

Final thought: just because you have advanced beyond the point of needing to hear "Follow The System" or "You Could Test That", don't assume that everybody else is equally far along in their trading journey. To you might be hackneyed and trite. To others it may be a revelation or a soothing confirmation.
shakyamuni
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 113
Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2003 9:44 am
Location: Somewhere, Hyperspace

Post by shakyamuni »

Good points, guys.
Bollinger
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 40
Joined: Wed Apr 16, 2003 2:42 pm
Location: New York City

Post by Bollinger »

OK, back to reality...

It's a lot more constructive to actually communicate with people about the issues they express concerns about then it is to insult those trying to work with them. If you don't understand what people are talking about and you feel the impulse to tell people not to ask their questions or not to offer help then please force yourself to be quiet instead.

And I will also say that these absolutist diatribes really bog things down and divert the focus of the discussion from substantive issues. Can we please try to avoid all the "take responsibility for yourself" stuff unless someone actually expresses concern about impulsive behavior?
Post Reply