Page 1 of 1
High win %
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:34 pm
by LeviF
I recently came up with a system with 80% winners and avg loss = 2x avg win. I am having difficulty understanding why and how this system is so accurate. But maybe that is why I havent made any money trading LTTF in the last 4 years. I wonder if anyone else successfully trades something with similar win/loss stats? I just started simul trading it to monitor slippage...
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 3:52 pm
by RedRock
Larry Williams did quite a bit with these digs. Usually Large losers, many small winners. A few big hits... Perhaps a bailout type exit which allows a market move on day one but is ruthless about getting out even if it doesn't take off pronto...
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 4:05 pm
by trackstar
would you call this system trendfollowing?
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 5:40 pm
by trackstar
well, I just wasted the afternoon trying to get an 80% win rate system....I can't get above 67%. Win:Loss is 1.7:1, not bad.
It seems I would need another input besides a moving average to achieve a higher win rate....
Multiple Time Frame
Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2012 6:53 pm
by wguan
I think MTF is the way to go for easily achieving high win rate. don't know how it would be implemented in tblow though.
Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 9:02 am
by drm7
LeviF: Is your system a countertrend system? I think that these kinds of systems are tempting, because that high win rate can make the results look really good. However, the really damaging losses don't show up until later, and its hard to really predict them. Vic Niederhoffer successfully traded a countertrend system (selling options) for years, then blew up almost overnight.
How large is your test set? How many trades?