Looking at path of trade

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CyTrend
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Looking at path of trade

Post by CyTrend » Mon Jan 31, 2011 6:57 am

Hello, was wondering how people go about evaluating the success of their entry signals any ideas or prior posts welcome. I am also trying to create a metric my self which is below


If the trade is exited within the first 10-15days it is counted as a looser
Then look at remaining trades (winning trades) and calculate the max favorobale excursion.

Then basically do a ratio or maxfavourableexcursion * winningtrades/ Stopouttrades* exit price.

I don't seem to be able to figure out how to distinguish between the loosing and winning trades if someone could help it would be greatly appreciated.

Tx

sluggo
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Post by sluggo » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:01 am

Chuck LeBeau's & David Lucas's book (ref) suggests one way to evaluate the goodness of trade entries, apart from exits, on pp. 171-172. Personally I don't find it especially valuable, because for me it replaces one question
  • Which of these eight different entry methods is best?
with another question
  • What number-of-days shall I use to evaluate my LeBeau and Lucas test results?
Fortunately, you are not me; programming the test they suggest, gathering the results, and analyzing them yourself might bring YOU incredible insights. I hope so.

Fire up your favorite search engine and hunt for the Trader's Roundtable message which contains this line:
TENTATIVE CONCLUSION: Textbook entry signals are non-negligible contributors towards system overall profits. Even with random exits, good entry signals can make money.
The thread which contains that post, may give you some more ideas.
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Jez Liberty
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Post by Jez Liberty » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:41 am

I am not familiar with the method from LeBeau's book but you could also use the e-ratio discussed by Curtis Faith in Way of the Turtle on page 65.
You might also have the same issue as sluggo highlights as the e-ratio is calculated for a specific day - although you can calculate/chart it for a range of days.

If you have access to the Blox marketplace, you can search there, I believe there is an (old?) implementation of if in TB.

Jez Liberty
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Post by Jez Liberty » Mon Jan 31, 2011 8:51 am

thanks sluggo, I saw that you just added the reference to the LeBeau's method (or did I just missed it before I replied?..) - which seems to have similar principles to the e-ratio calc

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