Compute risk when not holding stops

Discussions about the testing and simulation of mechanical trading systems using historical data and other methods. Trading Blox Customers should post Trading Blox specific questions in the Customer Support forum.
Post Reply
marriot
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 365
Joined: Thu Nov 20, 2008 3:02 am

Compute risk when not holding stops

Post by marriot »

Someone would like to share some idea on how to track total heat in systems like "Average Crossover" if you dont want to hold/use stops?

thank you
babelproofreader
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 138
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2004 4:36 pm

Post by babelproofreader »

If you are using an average crossover system you could compute the price tomorrow that would give a reversal signal. This price could then be used to calculate risk.
sluggo
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 2987
Joined: Fri Jun 11, 2004 2:50 pm

Post by sluggo »

The much harder question is how to do this for an ADX crossover system without stops. You would need to project tomorrow's Open, High, Low, and Close, since the two ADX lines that cross over (DMI+ and DMI-) require all four prices in their calculation.

And the VERY much harder question is how to define the word "risk". Do you want to include (possible severe price gaps) in your definition of risk? Although infrequent, they do occur. How about limit-locked days?
Attachments
PRICEGAP.png
PRICEGAP.png (10.28 KiB) Viewed 2606 times
Post Reply