Traders' Roundtable

This is a short term forex system that I'm working on. This is the equity curve from July 1991 to Jan 2008. Max DD of 9.3%, MAR of 1.7. Monte Carlo 95% DD of 15%.

This is the curve including this year. Max DD to 20%, MAR to 0.7

Hi Levi, I'm guessing you optimised this on the July 99 to January 08 data...

Thats what it looks like, but no.

If my equity curve changed that dramatically, I would find something else. You could always play the equity curve game though. Factor in a MA of the actually equity curve and stop trading it...and then restart when it comes back from reform school.

D

Hi levijean,

this is a frightning demonstration (if indeed not curve fitted). Thanks for showing us. My 2 cent:

a) Actually you are still within the parameters of your backtest. You wrote: "Monte Carlo 95% DD of 15%", so the current 20% don't seem incompatible with that. Of course look and feel of the underwater curve tell a different story ...

b) Systems with an edge always exploit some market inefficiency. (Thereby they reduce that inefficiency and make the market as a whole more efficient.) It seems the inefficiency your system was designed to capture has disappeared, at least temporary ... I've seen that happen to other systems, but not like that, not like a switch.

I for one would be interested in how that picture looks in some months.

Regards,
Asamat

Hi levijean,

any update on this? Did you follow how the past eight months would have been?

Regards,
Asamat

The original curve was based on bad data and therefore flawed from the get-go.

Can you elaborate on the "bad data".

Was it just for 2008 or the entire timeframe.

What does the graph look like now with the good data?

I dont care to get into it. There is nothing to be learned from this experiment.