New All-Time Record Volume

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When a commodity reaches new all-time record volume it indicates that:

1. Demand exceeds supply and the market will go much higher
1
17%
2. Public just joined the rally and the top is near
2
33%
3. I dont know what to say
1
17%
4. None of the above, I'll give my own answer
2
33%
 
Total votes: 6

BARLI
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New All-Time Record Volume

Post by BARLI » Mon Nov 06, 2006 4:04 am

When you vote, let us know why you chose that answer. If you chose option 4, please write you own answer and back it up with observations you've made ( it may come from trading experience or back tests)

PaulZ
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Record High Volume

Post by PaulZ » Tue Nov 07, 2006 4:21 pm

The poll's choices aren't enough. For example, if you believe that demand greatly exceeding supply could lead to record high volume, shouldn't you also believe that supply greatly exceeding demand should also lead to record high volume, although the expected direction of movement is down rather than up.

In any case, while record volumes could correspond to disparities between supply and demand, they could also just reflect growing activity in a market, with no particular directionality implied. It seems to me that record highs/lows would be a better reflection of supply demand disparities than record volumes.

Roscoe
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Post by Roscoe » Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:02 pm

I voted 4: It is most likely just an aberration that means nothing. Who gives a damn so long as there is an acceptable degree of liquidity over time?

BARLI
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Post by BARLI » Tue Nov 07, 2006 7:10 pm

Paul and Roscoe, thanks so much for your thoughts, I've posted same on british forum and the replies were similar so far, some guys also indicated that it might happen because index funds start pouring money into commodities (probably diversifying). Paul, sorry, my bad, I didnt include the down side, only the up side as an example

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