Trading Solutions Software

Discussions about the testing and simulation of mechanical trading systems using historical data and other methods. Trading Blox Customers should post Trading Blox specific questions in the Customer Support forum.
pakua42
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Trading Solutions Software

Post by pakua42 » Sat Dec 17, 2005 10:08 pm

Guys,

Has anyone tried the trading solutions software? It allows one to backtest all kinds of data for any kind of market as well as including a default system that makes use of their parameters and neural networks. and while I am using a free 30 day trial with them now, I am stuck on the default mode with it because it seems to be complicated to tweak even though no coding is required.

thanks,
Marc

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Post by Austrian » Sun Dec 18, 2005 4:41 am

From the WEB page: "Independent Trader Averages Returns of 80% to 120% per Month - Read our customer interview with yp Shramenko, who used TradingSolutions to achieve returns of 80% to 120% per month. "

I am speechless........

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Post by AFJ Garner » Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:34 am

No doubt the same guys claim to turn water into wine and resurrect the dead..........

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Post by BARLI » Sun Dec 18, 2005 10:04 am

haha yeah, those are charlatans for sure

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Post by Roscoe » Sun Dec 18, 2005 6:06 pm

Hi Marc,

A couple of comments: if it sounds too good to be true then it very probably is too good to be true; and your own results will be proportional to the amount of effort you are prepared to put in. I'm sorry but there really is no free lunch.

From this and your other posts I gather that you are relatively new at this (mechanical systems), and if that is the case I would suggest that you spend some time reading the many excellent posts on this forum - there is a great deal of valuable information here. By all means continue to ask questions but don't expect to find the answer neatly packaged for $X on some slick looking website.

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Post by pakua42 » Thu Dec 29, 2005 5:48 am

Roscoe,

I aprreciate your candor and honesty. But, to tell you the truth, I do kind of expect things to be neatly packaged for me, only in trading blox' case. Why? Either the turtle system still works or it doesnt. Either the triple moving average system is better than the turtle system or it isnt. Am I missing something? -) Yes, maybe with other software packages I would need to go into seclusion and lock myself in a room for a year backtesting countless different combinations of indicators and time frames but why with something thats proven already? Heck, i could just burn my brain out learning how to use trade station and experiment for years if I wanted to do that. Am I wrong? Please tell me.

thanx,
Marc

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Post by Austrian » Thu Dec 29, 2005 6:05 am

I am getting more and more amused reading the same questions over and over again. Some would like to learn from others some are ignoring the answers and advice they get .....

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Post by Roscoe » Thu Dec 29, 2005 6:14 am

Hi Marc,

OK, I’m your basic cynic I guess – what I am suggesting is that the items that are neatly packaged for your convenience may not perform as well as the packaging suggests. I have bought a few systems over the years and none of them have been even mildly impressive really. OTOH a few of the systems that I have developed myself perform much better and over a wider range of markets than those nicely packaged ones that I bought.

It’s very hard to have a black & white definition of a system “working or notâ€

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Post by AFJ Garner » Thu Dec 29, 2005 7:32 am

Marc

If only life were so simple. We would all like to be told what to do by somebody of infinite wisdom and be reassured that if we followed his advice we would win through: to trading riches, to health, to peace of mind, to heaven or the unmanifest.

However, if I have learnt anything over the past few years (and I am still learning, in life as well as in trading) it is that while it is perfectly legitimate to accept a tip or two along the way, you have to search your own inner depths to come up with a solution that you yourself can live with. In trading and in life.

Read the books, read this forum, see what paths others have chosen.

But at the end of the day, you must do your own research and find your own answers. Truly.

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Post by pakua42 » Fri Dec 30, 2005 5:08 am

to austrian, roscoe and the others,

I really do appreciate all of you taking the time to answer my questions. But does that mean I cant ask the same question to 20 different people until I am satisfied. This is not "How many miles to california from Seattle.?" This seems to be a question based on perspective. Althought, I was kind of expecting something like this:

"Hi marc. The turtle system is up 22% ytd for all chosen commmodities with gold being that biggest gainer at 87% ytd with turtle system. The moving average system returned 56% year to date but last year beat the turtle system by 5%. Now, i found by tweaking the turtle system to exit as soon as it crossed the 20sma the backtested results on longs went up 18 annually and shorting went up 23% annually.

I then used veritrader on crude oil only this year marc, and using a shorter time version of the triple moving average system i invented similar to trading blox, i had a 99% return."

THAT IS THE KIND OF ANSWER I WAS HOPING FOR. Give me numbers not just concepts. Again, I am reading many posts on here and am learning daily, but some things have to be asked over and over till you get that "ahhh hahh". Yes I will eventually get trading blox but my choice right now is to get the pros and cons of 2or 3 different software packages so ican have a backup plan if one turns out to be not my style. I would love to see how people with "something" lab pro that fidelity offers are doing in real numbers. that one interests me too. Noone is reporting stats. Why?

sincerely,
Marc

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Post by Austrian » Fri Dec 30, 2005 6:11 am

pakua42 wrote: But does that mean I cant ask the same question to 20 different people until I am satisfied. This is not "How many miles to california from Seattle.?" This seems to be a question based on perspective. Althought, I was kind of expecting something like this:

"Hi marc. The turtle system is up 22% ytd for all chosen commmodities with gold being that biggest gainer at 87% ytd with turtle system. The moving average system returned 56% year to date but last year beat the turtle system by 5%. Now, i found by tweaking the turtle system to exit as soon as it crossed the 20sma the backtested results on longs went up 18 annually and shorting went up 23% annually.

I then used veritrader on crude oil only this year marc, and using a shorter time version of the triple moving average system i invented similar to trading blox, i had a 99% return."

THAT IS THE KIND OF ANSWER I WAS HOPING FOR. Give me numbers not just concepts. Again, I am reading many posts on here and am learning daily, but some things have to be asked over and over till you get that "ahhh hahh". Yes I will eventually get trading blox but my choice right now is to get the pros and cons of 2or 3 different software packages so ican have a backup plan if one turns out to be not my style. I would love to see how people with "something" lab pro that fidelity offers are doing in real numbers. that one interests me too. Noone is reporting stats. Why?
This is my last answer....
I don´t want to get rude and have to tame myself. Just asking for numbers without taking into account the influence of the different portfolios etc. shows us that you are not prepared to invest your time and learn.
Ask Tim from Trading Blox for a full functioning Trading Blox Software and start testing. Testing is like giving yourself the answers. I personally learned c-trader, trading recipes, wealth lab and finally trading blox.

The last advice ... please learn, search for answers in this forum and if you don´t find something then post and ask.

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Answers

Post by AFJ Garner » Fri Dec 30, 2005 6:40 am

Marc

You just don't seem to be getting the point. There are about 150 tradeable futures. What portfolio do you want tested? What portfolio heat do you want to use? What bet size? What starting capital? What start date? What percentage of market volume are you prepared to trade? You mention TMA and Turtle: what lenghths of moving average, what level of money management stops, what breakout periods, any additional filters?, any profit taking? , any pyramidding?

The questions just go on and on and on and on. And so do the answers. That is why you will get nowhere asking the sort of questions you have been asking.

I could come up with a system which has made or lost money this year, last year, every year. -1%, +200%, -20%..............with drawdowns of zero, -50%, -95%.

You will never appreciate the implications of what you are asking until you get down to the brass tacks and start programming and testing.

And as for asking for people's actual real money P&Ls this year - well, no, that's private. Some people like Chris have stated they have made a real money return of 30% over 18 months using a TMA - that will have to be enough for you but it gets you nowehere since you have no idea what parameters Chris uses or what his portfolio is. Look at www.iasg.com - at least you can see what the trend following CTAs have achieved. That is publically available information.

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Post by Old European » Fri Dec 30, 2005 6:40 am

Forum Moderator,

There used to be a forum section called something like 'the bottom of the barrel'. This thread is becoming a good candidate for transfer to that section. I always try to read all new messages, but I'm beginning to loose my time ...

Cheers,

Old European

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Post by kianti » Fri Dec 30, 2005 8:29 am

'the bottom of the barrel'.
or even Pure Snake Oil :lol: :lol: :lol:


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Why make billions when you can make millions

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Post by JimR » Sat Feb 11, 2006 4:52 pm

pakua42 wrote:Roscoe,

Either the turtle system still works or it doesnt. Either the triple moving average system is better than the turtle system or it isnt. Am I missing something? -) Heck, i could just burn my brain out learning how to use trade station and experiment for years if I wanted to do that. Am I wrong? Please tell me.

thanx,
Marc

Marc,

I think you are looking for answers that may not be there. You seem to be looking for THE answer. There isn't one. You also mentioned asking the question over & over until you get the answer you like. That sounds like a salesman's dream, telling a prospect what he wants to hear. To answer a question like "either the Turtle system still works or it doesn't?"... there is really not a yes or no answer to that. Or as someone else put it, its not black & white.

The whole foundation of the Turtle system or Trend Following in general is that it works great when it works & not so well when it doesn't. In other words, there are lots of small losers that must be fought off to find the big winner. That can also apply to time frames, ie. it may go a year and not produce any meaningful gains then the next produce huge gains. So to ask whether it still works or not is not really the question you want to ask. You should be asking:"do markets still trend?" To which the answer is: absolutely. As long as markets trend, the turtle system or any other trend following based model will produce profits if the rules are followed, specifically, risk & money mgmt rules.

The TMA system is just another trend following-based system. Once it gets you into a trade its up to the trader to manage his risk & follow his rules. Both systems tend to generate a lot of small losers(small, if you follow the rules) and a lesser amount of big winners(big, if you follow the rules).

I still hear people saying TF doesn't work on stocks. That is just simply not true (look at NTRI,PHS,AAPL,DLX,HANS, HOC,JAS, MDR,WLT & HOLX over the past year, to name a very few). Those are trends that would make any trend follower blush :roll:

In summary, you needn't bang your head in studying TS or another system but you do need to learn rules and learn the discipline to follow them without fail. Plus, you can't search for the holy grail or THE answer. There isnt one. You also would serve yourself well to observe the mkts and test and trade your rules as opposed to looking for performance figures on the websites of trading software hucksters. If you do these things Im sure you will see for yourself that trend following is still, and will always be, a viable trading methodology to the discplined trader who follows the rules.

All the best....

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Post by pakua42 » Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:05 am

Thanks Jim for your input. I do have to say that I am still not understanding why I get completely different answers and also read completely diferent kind of posts on other forums. Here I am treated like an imbecile or a small child. Other forums seem to be more direct. Example? Someone posts a system they tested on the Eur/USD currency pair. They claim they made such and such a return over the last couple of months and post the code or parameters so we can all try it. Then someone like me asks a question. Something like, "have you tried it in a different time frame?" I will almost always get a polite answer like, yes, but it isnt profitable, or no Im sorry, I never tried that." Simple! If I ask about a basket of investments, they might reply "with the metals I seem to be doing better than the energy futures but both are profitable." My God, all I am talking about here is basically how well do the default systems and parameters work in the trading blox softeware, and if you would like to share, what tweaks have you made, that made them better? I didnt realize I was being so lazy. Jeez! Even Tim was kind enough to post results for the triple moving average system as a sample after I asked. Anthony Robbins made a brilliant statement that I try to live by. He said, "You can learn by your own mistakes, or someone elses. The second way is much faster and easier." Amen. When I have the resources , time and frame of mind to learn coding and do all that you guys have done, I wont need to work any more anyway. It's just very difficult for me with all that I have going on in my life right now. Its like someone who is a first time father asking a million questions and getting an answer like.."well, you just have to try it and do it." No! Your child or your bankroll or your spirits could be fatally effected depending on what you are dealing with. I hope someone out there thinks its better to ask.

I wont mention any names but you can go to the boards/sites of some of the other companies that make backtesting software and they give out their trading systems freely. Sure 99% dont work, but who cares. Its a place to start.

Hey, I am on a short bankroll and have very little free time so when money and time are a problem, one doesnt have the luxery of making many mistakes. I have also tried to learn coding and am failing miserably at it. But, maybe I need to buy a specific book. I am still willing to learn. Also, do all of you forget, the turtles where given a specific set of rules to follow and I am quite sure they had every question answered before they put one dollar in the markets. True? So, since no one seems to have a specific set of rules, many, many questions become necessary. I hope one day to be on this board mentoring another guy like me and smiling to myself that "I understand your excitement and also your frustration." I also hope to have much to give back and share when I finally do pull the trigger in futures. I re-itrate once more, I am on a percentage basis quite successful in equities, it is only my small bankroll that makes me unable to follow it as a career path. I could make any person here a successful equities position trader in 30 minutes with a few simple rules. But, being successful and being a pro at it is a whole different story. Until I can trade professionally, I still have much to learn. Thank you all for your patience......

Marc

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Post by pakua42 » Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:12 am

Hey, heres another idea maybe I should post on a different link. Why not have those who think they are profitable post their trades here and everyone can be judged on their merits and all this could be kept track of by the admin. You dont have to reveal the parameters you used or any coding. They do it on another board whose initials are WLP. Why not here? Its really quite interesting to see. Might be a great way to have a contest of some sort here and promote the site. Maybe give away the blox software or some kind of prize to the winner at the end of 2006.

Marc

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Post by AFJ Garner » Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:49 am

pakua42

We are all "children" when we start out on any new venture. I am sorry you feel the way you do and I'm sure none of us intended any insult or unhelpfulness in our replies. If my posts came accross that way, I apologise - I meant to be helpful, not to cause upset.

I am still a "child" in terms of mechanical systems trading, I am still learning programming, TBB and otherwise. I am still constantly surprised at the results I get from my testing. I still constantly make incorrect and foolish assumptions. I guess I will always want to learn and to improve. At least that is my aim.

Let me share a personal story. I started looking at mechanical systems a few years ago when I saw the end of the road (for the time being) in the IPO market. I wanted to diversify, learn new tricks, adapt and survive.

I wanted to be in a hurry, I wanted to start, I felt the pressure to diversify and start something new, NOW, QUICK.

I read the standard books, the Kaufman's et al. My head started to hurt. I realised I had to go back to basics and improve on my prep school maths: so I bought O and A level books on statistics and mathematics. I began to realise what an enormous task I had embarked on. I bought Voldemort's uselss course, I was baffled by his useless CD containing individual futures prices and had no idea how I could use it to test the ideas in his equally uselss manual.

Nor had he!

I asked dumb questions of forum members who politely told me to get lost.

My head started to burst again. I had to calm down, to reassess, to take things slowly. I bought a vendor product or two (fully disclosed) traded them, kicked the tyres, learnt, made a bit. Thought, tested, took my time.

Bought Trading Recipes, bought Trading Blox. Read countless disclosure documents from the trend following CTAs, read between the lines, looked at their portfolios.

Spoke to loads of CTAs. Met loads of them. Ditto hedge fund managers in general.

Look, at the end of the day, if you want to know about long term trend following, it is simple. There are many good, generic systems which will have you in a trade and cut your losses short. Add add sensible money management. TBB has in-built many such systems. Fiddle with the parameters, read what others say about many mature markets needing longer term systems while shorter term systems work just fine on some markets: the Hang Seng for instance, or some interest rates, or (apparently) exotic equities in emerging markets.

I and many others have given examples on how we think you can build and improve on some of the basic systems in TBB: and Tim has added further tools over the months for just such a purpose: profit taking; risk limiters; filters etc etc etc.

There is so much on this forum which can help you on your way. Sluggo has posted numerous examples and given parameters showing excellent results. OK, so he is guilty of cherry picking very often but the fact remains. Ditton Tim.

If you don't have the time to learn programming and learn the trade properly then my humble and well meaning advice is: don't trade until you can spare the time. Don't rush - be a child, learn like a child, enjoy the experience, live in the now.

Excuse me for being a loudmouth and please do not take any offence. But I guess may be you can see my reasoning.

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Post by edb » Sat Feb 18, 2006 2:23 pm

pakua42 wrote:Hey, heres another idea maybe I should post on a different link. Why not have those who think they are profitable post their trades here and everyone can be judged on their merits and all this could be kept track of by the admin. You dont have to reveal the parameters you used or any coding. They do it on another board whose initials are WLP. Why not here? Its really quite interesting to see. Might be a great way to have a contest of some sort here and promote the site. Maybe give away the blox software or some kind of prize to the winner at the end of 2006.

Marc
Marc,

Try this link:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthrea ... adid=61514

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Post by Roscoe » Sat Feb 18, 2006 6:23 pm

Bravo Mr Garner, an excellent post! Getting to the stage of trusting your own systems always takes a lot longer than you ever thought it would.

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