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Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 12:25 pm
by Spectre
700 pips of risk on 1 standard lot(100,000) in the spot market is 9.17 dollars per pip.

700 x 9.17 = 6,419.00

700 pips is quantified from the recent high and low. (122-115)

Linear regression slope on the daily is upward sloping.

100,000 equity 1 standard lot, 700 pip fluctuation is 6.4% fluctuation with no leverage. Since the notional amount is being traded.

If you only wanted to risk 1 percent on any trade using linear regression to point to the direction of the trend.

1000 divided by 9.17 = 110 pips.

if you wanted to risk 1% but wanted greater buffer in pips if you cut the lot size to 5 minilots(10,000 each) now you've increased the pip deviation to 220 pips on 1 percent move in equity using 5 minilots.

The current price is 118.00 or 300 pips above 115. cutting the minilot size down to 2.5 x 440 pips offers you 140 pips buffer zone on the bottom of the range. Whats the reward?

Since current price is 118, upper border is 122, 400 pips reward almost 1:1 R:R(risk:reward).

This takes into account 1% risk limit per trade and 1% reward outlook based on the markets recent high and linear regression implied trend projection.

Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2007 12:34 pm
by Spectre
heres the weekly chart using the same number of bars on the daily. I think its around 610 bars.

Posted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:24 am
by Spectre
seasonal pattern with yen, usdyen bearish as summer approaches, risk of 110 exists.