too much bad news no 87 scenario yet

General discussions about futures.
BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

too much bad news no 87 scenario yet

Post by BARLI » Thu Sep 18, 2008 7:29 am

Lehman 159 year old bank went bankrupt, S&P500 went down only 4 %.. Lehman's debt is around 639 billions.. When LTCM went bankrupt S&P 500 went down 8% in one day(August 31 1998)....it seems like too much noise but no brutal action..Of course SEC came out with no naked shorts anymore but it doesn't seem to worry traders.. I expect S&P 500 at 1100 level during next week

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

short selling is banned in UK

Post by BARLI » Fri Sep 19, 2008 4:43 am

regulators do what they want to do and we just have to adjust...gosh, Royal Bank fo Scotland is up 40%, UBS about same percentage. Looks like no one will have a chance to short sell anymore. thats not fun!

sluggo
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 2986
Joined: Fri Jun 11, 2004 2:50 pm

Post by sluggo » Fri Sep 19, 2008 8:25 am

Banjoplayer says (link)
Attachments
FTN.jpg
FTN.jpg (28.04 KiB) Viewed 11726 times

RedRock
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 939
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2004 3:54 pm
Location: Chicago

Post by RedRock » Fri Sep 19, 2008 12:55 pm

sluggo wrote:Banjoplayer says (link)
Thanks for the reminder.... And thanks again ED.... Needed a reason to laugh when I logged on today... ha :)

7432
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 199
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 7:00 pm
Location: sandy, ut

Post by 7432 » Fri Sep 19, 2008 2:46 pm

pretty tough to file the news when the government is taking the first steps toward nationalizing the financial sector.
seems the same as chavez nationalizing the oil industry.
ahh, the road to serfdom is a smooth ride.

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Tue Sep 23, 2008 9:22 am

the news didn't really help the markets yesterday when they tumbled 4%..I am still bearish..here in Israel real estate index went up on the bailout news 32% during the day, its total MADNESS! Madness should be shorted..I am sceptical that the senate will aprove the offer of 700 billion bail out, Bush doesn't seem to decide anything anymore..watching Bloomberg now, senators don't seem to aprove the plan...

AFJ Garner
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 2040
Joined: Fri Apr 25, 2003 3:33 pm
Location: London
Contact:

Post by AFJ Garner » Tue Sep 23, 2008 11:16 am

I am with banjoplayer.

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Mon Sep 29, 2008 2:58 pm

getting closer to 87 scenario... -8% so far

Nussgipfel
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:02 pm
Location: Westport

Post by Nussgipfel » Tue Sep 30, 2008 5:54 am

Love that song! For what it is worth using Gann cycles a low could be coming in on or about 10/10 or 10/13.

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Thu Oct 02, 2008 8:18 am

hi Nussgipfel, some Gann students I talk say October 7-th is next low, today's (Oct 2-nd) high in US indexes...

Nussgipfel
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:02 pm
Location: Westport

Post by Nussgipfel » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:55 am

Thanks Barli. Either way it seems that we are in the final stages of this decline or so I hope as there is some real suffering here on Main and Wall Street. Amazing how we got here and all the things that are happening which no one would believe only 6 months ago! Simply amazing and fascinating to a certain extent.

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Fri Oct 03, 2008 5:07 pm

its not done yet...

Asamat
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 175
Joined: Fri Jun 03, 2005 7:50 am
Location: Walldorf, Germany

Post by Asamat » Sun Oct 05, 2008 7:47 am

BARLI wrote:its not done yet...
I agree, more is to come.
Nussgipfel wrote: ... it seems that we are in the final stages of this decline ...
What makes you think that? Usually, as long as people believe or hope it'll soon get better, it's not over. It only get's better, when none are left with optimism. Then they ring the bell ... or don't they? :wink:

Regards,
Asamat

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Sun Oct 05, 2008 2:01 pm

DAX will be on fire tomorrow with HRE with no financing from german banks..seems like no one seems to care there: Bundesbank said that private banks should provide financing, but private banks said: why the theck should do that? 400 bln balance sheet with bad mortgages, thats quite a mess to bail out
Asamat wrote:
BARLI wrote:its not done yet...
I agree, more is to come.
Nussgipfel wrote: ... it seems that we are in the final stages of this decline ...
What makes you think that? Usually, as long as people believe or hope it'll soon get better, it's not over. It only get's better, when none are left with optimism. Then they ring the bell ... or don't they? :wink:

Regards,
Asamat

nodoodahs
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 218
Joined: Wed Aug 09, 2006 4:01 pm

Post by nodoodahs » Sun Oct 05, 2008 4:32 pm

Asamat wrote:Usually, as long as people believe or hope it'll soon get better, it's not over. It only get's better, when none are left with optimism. Then they ring the bell ... or don't they? :wink:

Regards,
Asamat
SOMEBODY always has optimism at the bottom. You know how I KNOW this?

Because there was a tick there.

Every share or contract sold has a buy at the same price. Hence, the low point of every move has somebody optimistic about price action in the future.

The whole "sentiment" thing is greatly misunderstood. It's not about a preponderance of opinion, it's about preponderance of opinion among holders of STUPID money.

By the time the shoe-shine boy is excited about stocks, the move is soon to be done. By the time the mainstream press is full of doom and gloom, ditto, the move is soon to be done.

BTW I include anybody that is forced to sell by margin calls or poor position sizing / risk control as STUPID money, even if they run a hedge fund or I-Bank.

Nussgipfel
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 115
Joined: Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:02 pm
Location: Westport

Post by Nussgipfel » Mon Oct 06, 2008 5:45 am

I do not know if the decline is over.......far from it! I only stated that if you are using W.D. Gann cycle work then one has to look into the POSSIBILITY of a potential low in the market going into the 10/10 or 10/13 time frame. The market being down for almost one full year is quite a long time which of course does not mean it could not go down longer and more.

In the meantime you might want to check how many times we found a change in trend over the past years around this time ...it is quite remarkable. Also the low in 2002 was pretty much to the day on this date and so was 1990. Just a possibility not more and not less. Also even if true the low should be tested as they usually are hence no need to try to catch the falling knife to go agressiveley long anyway.

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Fri Oct 24, 2008 9:21 am

seems like today is going to be a bad one, possibly monday will be the same just like it was on 1987 Oct 16 and then Oct 19-th

freeman
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Oct 04, 2005 7:12 pm
Location: Switzerland

worst oct since 87

Post by freeman » Fri Oct 31, 2008 6:05 pm

MarketWatch Bulletin

Major stocks close month down 14-17%,dow has worst October since 1987.

Spot on Barli

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Fri Oct 31, 2008 11:02 pm

Indeed horrible month for stocks, but no selling climax yet.. I am looking for something that happened in China, Phillipines during last week, around 12-15% drop during one single day. Its on the way after the correction ends. GDP that'll come out in 2 months will be very negative, some analysts even forecast -4%, probably will be -2%, the rest of the fundamentals are still extremely weak. Paulson was buying local banks and insurance companies, its ridiculous, this clown got 700 mil$ net worth from Goldman Sachs and now wasting taxpayers money to bail out his friends from GS, I wonder how much GS is paying him for doing this favor or is it commission based scheme?
GS:"Hank, if you'll get us 100 mil$ rescue package you'll get your 10%".. 8)

BARLI
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 650
Joined: Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:01 pm
Location: USA

Post by BARLI » Thu Nov 13, 2008 6:54 am

I expect a big drop until Nov 18-th.. then it should go up. Around March 26-27 should be a low... see attached, the work's been done with Neural Network's help.. we'll see if this it true


Image
Last edited by BARLI on Sun Jan 04, 2009 11:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.

Post Reply