nikkei

General discussions about futures.
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Spectre
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nikkei

Post by Spectre » Mon Apr 30, 2007 9:18 am

http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/NK/M

global equity markets continue to make price progressions.

long term peak 21000

RedRock
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Post by RedRock » Mon Apr 30, 2007 1:23 pm

Why do you post your guesses here? Are you bored? Just curious.

Spectre
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Post by Spectre » Mon Apr 30, 2007 2:01 pm

ya pretty much, also to increase discussion.

RedRock
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Post by RedRock » Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:04 pm

Not sure of the context, but remember Sluggos comment recently about the thrills of LTTF and how the turtles played ping pong to have something to do.

I just read that part in the book (w.o.t.t.) and didn't make the bored connection. But yeah, that seems pretty much the jist of it..

Also remember some quote from Market Wizards. Guy said if investors knew the reality of the "high stakes game of LTTF" and how we spent our days, they would be disappointed.


whatever

Spectre
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Post by Spectre » Mon Apr 30, 2007 3:42 pm

the most useful thing I have found is to wait for price points relative to the price movement itself, and engage in price battles at those points. To mean that to reverse with the price as the price tries to find direction and let it break away from those zones.

most of the time it will break according to the long term trends similar to the 100 point runup in spooz past few weeks.

long term moving averages where the price violates those averages is another reference technique. The short term your moving average the more often they will be violated and you end up accruing costs in following the price violations.

a 400 day MA backtested works pretty good. I use chandlier stop ATR5 10, and a regular stop of ATR5.

The current violations of the 400 day MA are with:

1) wheat
2) 10 year/30 year bonds
3) soybean meal
4) swiss franc
5) OJ
6) canadian dollar

Even the open range system is a modification of price point violation, tracking price direction and not making directional bets. Looking at everything over the years, this is the system that suits my taste.

I was thinking of paying for a open range/week range using daily bars system to be coded. The system would store where the market opened at the start of the week, and would initiate a long or short based on where it closed on monday in reference to the open. A reversal point would be mondays open. So evertime mondays open gets violated the system would reverse.

This system works well on a intraday basis, but not sure how it will work on weekly basis.

RedRock
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Post by RedRock » Mon Apr 30, 2007 6:34 pm

I was watching a boy with a a kite at the beach over the weekend. the wind was on and off. He would toss it in the air and sometimes the wind would take it far. a few moments later.... not so much. Seems kite flying and trading have similarities.

I was watching waves breaking on the shore. Sometimes a wave would come alone and make some progress up the sand before returning. Other times a second and third wave come in closely behind the first, and the combined action carries well up the beach. Seems trading and the beach have things in common.

I was watching an insect climb up a wall...

Spectre wrote:the most useful thing I have found is to wait for price points relative to the price movement itself, and engage in price battles at those points. To mean that to reverse with the price as the price tries to find direction and let it break away from those zones.

most of the time it will break according to the long term trends similar to the 100 point runup in spooz past few weeks.

long term moving averages where the price violates those averages is another reference technique. The short term your moving average the more often they will be violated and you end up accruing costs in following the price violations.

a 400 day MA backtested works pretty good. I use chandlier stop ATR5 10, and a regular stop of ATR5.

The current violations of the 400 day MA are with:

1) wheat
2) 10 year/30 year bonds
3) soybean meal
4) swiss franc
5) OJ
6) canadian dollar

Even the open range system is a modification of price point violation, tracking price direction and not making directional bets. Looking at everything over the years, this is the system that suits my taste.

I was thinking of paying for a open range/week range using daily bars system to be coded. The system would store where the market opened at the start of the week, and would initiate a long or short based on where it closed on monday in reference to the open. A reversal point would be mondays open. So evertime mondays open gets violated the system would reverse.

This system works well on a intraday basis, but not sure how it will work on weekly basis.

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