Why not trade E-Mini's long term with EMAs?

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billpritjr
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Why not trade E-Mini's long term with EMAs?

Post by billpritjr » Mon Dec 13, 2004 4:42 pm

Just curious, looking for comments

I am not saying I am "right" or "wrong", but looking for constructive comments and criticism. As a still-learning futures trader, and a stock investor for coming up on 10 years, I am growing wearing of stocks responding to Greenspan, bombs in Bagdad, etc. As you all know, The Market dictates for the most part what individual stocks will do, and it is up to the investor to identify which stocks (out of 10,000) will most benefit from the market environment.

With that said, I have had alot of success determining the overall market trend, using EMA's and also using Accumulation/Distribution analysis techniques advocated by William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily.

With that said (take II), I do NOT trade for income, but for long term investment goals. Therefore, if we can identify market trends, why not just trade the E-Mini NASDAQ 100 futures using trend following or EMA's?

Please see attached chart. When the EMA's indicate uptrend, we go long, when they go flat, we exit, and when they go down, we short. Chart displays back to 1997 to 2004.

This involves conducting the trade then not trading again for 6-9+ months to 1-2 years. This "lack of action" may preclude people from looking into this. However I would rather do this than hand picking individual stocks each day, which can be a pain in the a$$

Comments?
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nzbryant
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Post by nzbryant » Mon Dec 13, 2004 10:50 pm

I agree. I lost over half my account trading forex, even though I had backtested many methods, but then found the 'Holy Grail' by trading just long term trends.

I pay much lower spread per month as a percent of my account by doing so, get whipsawed less or not at all by unexpected intraday moves (as stops wider), and get more of the big trends. But why was it so hard to convert? Because I wanted leverage - like 10x - to get rich!

BUT I LEARNT.... making 5-10% a month, simply, on 1-2 x leverage compounds to vastly greater wealth than compounding breakeven or losing returns on 10x leverage :lol:, - the lesson is just more patience and waiting :?

billpritjr
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Post by billpritjr » Tue Dec 14, 2004 11:51 am

thanks for the responses guys

I am learning about futures and recently realized that trading the E-mini and holding for the market cycle may be easier than hand picking and researching each stock that comes up on my "watchlist" every night.

trader60611
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Re: EMA's

Post by trader60611 » Tue Dec 14, 2004 8:58 pm

On ypur posted chart may I ask where your entances and exits were? I would assume, out of honesty, you will be discussing where you were whipsawed. Unless, of course, all of your trades were profitable, thus making you the best trader in the world

billpritjr
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Post by billpritjr » Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:05 am

On ypur posted chart may I ask where your entances and exits were? I would assume, out of honesty, you will be discussing where you were whipsawed. Unless, of course, all of your trades were profitable, thus making you the best trader in the world
My chart was posted for the forum to see and post constructive comments. Your assumption, out of honesty, that I will be discussing where I was whipsawed, is appreciated, however you are already too far into your assumption, as I have yet to trade this. Hence the purpose of my post.

You mentioned "the best trader in the world." I don't think that is possible, but if we all (you too Manny) strive for that, and only get halfway there, then we are still doing well

CONSTRUCTIVE comments wanted

later

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