Current Market Psychology

Discussions about personal psychology for the individual trader.
Post Reply
Chris67
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 1046
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2003 2:12 pm
Location: London

Current Market Psychology

Post by Chris67 » Wed Oct 12, 2011 6:55 am

More stupid than ever ?
The markets are never wrong I know I know - at any given moment in time they rpresent buyers and seleers - I know I know - But something seems to be getting more and more disjointed here
The DAX is up 20 % in 7 days as things get progressively worse in Europe - the markets seems excited that this bailout fund is a solution when in fact it will make matters considerbaly worse in Europe
There is not one sniff anywhere out there of anyone even talking about sorting Europe's problems out - only in throwing money at the problem which will ultimately make the crash 20 times worse when it happens

I wish I had the ability to test this data idea

Last World War - Current date = General stupidity (distance to reality) of general population and market investors

Love to see its effect on our systems over time the premise being the further away we get from a war the more people believe life is tough when you cannot buy a 50 Inch plasma screen TV and the more people believe someone will always be there to pick up teh pieces as markets currently mistakingly believe will be teh case with Europe
Everyday that goes by and every pip the stock markets rally on a perceived solution that is in fact part of teh problem makes the liklihood of armageddon more and more likely

I hope everyone is doing what they need to do in their personal lives here to prepare
C

Rush
Roundtable Fellow
Roundtable Fellow
Posts: 50
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 1969 7:00 pm

Post by Rush » Thu Oct 13, 2011 4:44 am

Chris,

thank you for sharing your view on the current status of the Markets.

Historically high printing polices can lead to stock prices crashes (melt down and depression) or stock prices rallies (melt up and hyperinflation).

The outcome can be spotted by tracking the flow of the [printed] money.

Chris67
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 1046
Joined: Tue Dec 16, 2003 2:12 pm
Location: London

Post by Chris67 » Thu Oct 13, 2011 6:09 am

Rush - Thanks for your response - agreed - or if you are TF then by going with the price I guess !!!!

rabidric
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:45 am

Post by rabidric » Wed Oct 19, 2011 11:55 am

Chris , I don't know if i mentioned it to you in one of our conversations, but your "elapsed time since war" idea is similar to my "great-grandfather+" theory.

We are aware of what happened in our parents generation because there are plenty of people around to preach it. Likewise, many people are able to learn things directly from their, or other people's, still living grandparents, or have them passed down with minimal signal loss via parents.

But the wisdom of what went down in the period of your great-grandfather's working lifetime and before that, that is largely ignored by most people when "framing" their current worldview.

Therefore, the most directly relevant lessons to today probably lie in the realm of history that is 70+ years ago.

rhc
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 464
Joined: Tue Nov 18, 2008 8:46 pm
Location: Oz

Post by rhc » Wed Oct 19, 2011 8:52 pm

Rabidric,
Good stuff.
It's the old story;
"those that ignore history are condemned to repeat it"

Eventhorizon
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:36 pm
Location: Boulder, CO
Contact:

Post by Eventhorizon » Thu Oct 20, 2011 11:49 am

Hi Rich,

Nice to hear from you ...

I have always felt that your great-grandfather + theory explains the persistence of the Kondratieff Cycle.

to echo rhc: history doesn't repeat but it rhymes (Twain)
.. though I have a hard time coming up with anything that rhymes with "history"!

rabidric
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:45 am

Post by rabidric » Thu Oct 20, 2011 12:15 pm

"mystery" ? :wink:

LeviF
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 1428
Joined: Mon Dec 22, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Des Moines, IA
Contact:

Post by LeviF » Thu Oct 20, 2011 1:06 pm

rabidric wrote:Chris , I don't know if i mentioned it to you in one of our conversations, but your "elapsed time since war" idea is similar to my "great-grandfather+" theory.

We are aware of what happened in our parents generation because there are plenty of people around to preach it. Likewise, many people are able to learn things directly from their, or other people's, still living grandparents, or have them passed down with minimal signal loss via parents.

But the wisdom of what went down in the period of your great-grandfather's working lifetime and before that, that is largely ignored by most people when "framing" their current worldview.

Therefore, the most directly relevant lessons to today probably lie in the realm of history that is 70+ years ago.
My great-aunt passed away earlier this year. She was around 90 yrs old and was the last in our family of that generation. When she was about 20 she fled Germany with her parents and siblings during WWII leaving behind their home, business, extended family, belongings, etc. Her father was able to get the family out of the concentration camp because he had an Iron Cross medal that he was awarded for service during WWI. Its difficult to imagine such hardship.

rabidric
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:45 am

Post by rabidric » Fri Oct 21, 2011 3:23 am

I wish one of my grandfathers had lived longer, He also had an epic lifestory, and I never had the experience, maturity and adult insight to truely discuss it and learn from him.

But in addition , I would also point out, that when i mention my great-grandfather+ idea, most people do default to then thinking about the 1-2 generations prior. But before that there is a wealth of history too....

16th, 17th, 18th and 19th Centuries contain many fascinating events in economic history which have lots and lots of relevance to today's issues. It is not hard to find good modern media about those events, all that is needed is a interest. and google/amazon helps.... 8)

Moto moto
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 427
Joined: Mon Jun 01, 2009 4:12 am
Location: once again in the UK

Post by Moto moto » Fri Oct 21, 2011 6:10 am

As there are always two sides to every story....just dont forget the other folks, that always believe it was better in the old days and that we should have maintained the status quo....and some of us I am sure are entering this stage. :)

Plus to rhyme with history, what about misery

Robwynge
Senior Member
Senior Member
Posts: 42
Joined: Wed May 25, 2011 10:33 pm

Re: Current Market Psychology

Post by Robwynge » Thu Oct 27, 2011 8:04 pm

Chris67 wrote:More stupid than ever ?
Today just takes the cake. A 3+% rally based on yet more empty promises without details? Really? I don't buy into conspiracy theories about market manipulation, but I wonder if there are big money banks and funds that have figured out how to catch a large number of market participants completely off-guard. Today reminds me of the day last month when every "expert" on CNBC was demanding that the Fed do "operation twist" and swearing that the market would crash if they didn't. So the Fed did operation twist to the letter and the market crashed anyway.

Let's see if the whole world gets long now, only to see the market reverse down again, perhaps to be explained by the Euro deal being empty and hollow?

rabidric
Roundtable Knight
Roundtable Knight
Posts: 243
Joined: Mon Jan 09, 2006 7:45 am

Post by rabidric » Fri Oct 28, 2011 4:05 am

You are thinking like a trader. 8)
Just don't call it too early and fight the current upward tide.

Post Reply