Search found 230 matches

by Tim Arnold
Mon Jan 17, 2005 4:45 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: filtering idea
Replies: 3
Views: 6577

Hi Wonkabar, I have done some research using VeriTrader where I filter trades that are near "historical" levels. The concept being that you might not want to buy something at its all time high, or sell at the all time low. My research so far has indidcated to me that this type of filter do...
by Tim Arnold
Mon Jan 03, 2005 9:56 am
Forum: Brokers
Topic: Stop Order Acceptance
Replies: 17
Views: 18932

I've had orders rejected by the broker. Here is the message I received: "Your order for the 2Yr T-Note to sell @ 105-26 Stop, the note went home yesterday @ 105-23. This is a sell stop above the market - broker rejected. Please cancel and replace." I'm trading a turtle type system, so I ge...
by Tim Arnold
Wed Nov 03, 2004 2:25 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: By What Measure? - How do You Know if a System is Good?
Replies: 84
Views: 100618

Hi George -- MAR stands for Minimum Acceptable Return. As for how it's calculated, there are a couple of threads that are useful. http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=36 Basically the % CAGR divided by the % maximum drawdown over your test period. Nice clean measure of reward vs. pain. H...
by Tim Arnold
Sun Sep 05, 2004 10:41 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: To Detrend or not to Detrend? That is my question.
Replies: 2
Views: 6633

I've wondered the same thing myself. I've concluded to not detrend. My current thinking is that the prices the simluation uses for entries and exits given my average trade duration of 2-4 weeks are the actual price variations that I would have traded. If the contract rolls, I would have done that at...
by Tim Arnold
Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:45 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: A swan strikes
Replies: 15
Views: 14773

Hi Jake, Great topic, as the same thing happened to me on Friday. I was long TU, TY, and US (and GC). So I got knocked out of the TU and US, but my TY stop was filled then busted. First for me. Also, my entry long stop in SF got hit and now I'm big in the hole on that one. Overall a 5% equity drawdo...
by Tim Arnold
Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:29 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: Which futures markets trend the most?
Replies: 18
Views: 33337

Hi Forum Mgmnt, This makes alot of sense to me, and I have included instruments in my portfolio that lose money over the test period, but raise my MAR by lowering the max drawdown. I like the concept you raise about "optimizing the non-correlation with each other." I could imagine exportin...
by Tim Arnold
Fri Aug 06, 2004 10:38 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Palladium
Replies: 5
Views: 5478

Hi Forum Mgmnt, Can you help me out with understanding volume? According to the CSI UA product I use, Sept Paladium's "volume" is 200-500 contract per day for the day session only. Also on Futuresource.com today's volume looks like 720. Are they talking about contracts or something else --...
by Tim Arnold
Fri Aug 06, 2004 8:39 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Palladium
Replies: 5
Views: 5478

That's the thing -- I'm just trading 1 contract -- I can't see why anyone would bother picking off my stops for that -- they must be really bored down there... :)

Of course maybe I'm just feeling persecuted... :wink:

Anyway, I don't care about the fills -- I'm in it for the trend! :lol:

Tim
by Tim Arnold
Thu Aug 05, 2004 1:59 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Palladium
Replies: 5
Views: 5478

Palladium

Hi there, I'm finding that my stop orders in Palladium (Sept) keep getting picked off. Invariably my buy orders get executed at the high of the day, and my sell orders at the low. And looking at the 5 minute bars usually shows a spike up/down to my price and then back. Does anyone else find that thi...
by Tim Arnold
Tue Jul 13, 2004 10:22 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Are You Suited to Trend Following
Replies: 42
Views: 83111

Low N, Low O, High C.

I agree with the idea that if one is into trading for stimulation, the odds of success are diminished. My opinion of course. I have certainly seen people like this, and see where the author is coming from.