Search found 84 matches

by verec
Mon Aug 16, 2004 3:18 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: Closing prices only...
Replies: 4
Views: 5546

The most serious limitation with close price only is that you won't be able to compute the ATR and you will have to use/invent other ways to measure volatility. According to The Original Turtle Rules the ATR (called "N") does use H and L as in: To compute the daily true range: True Range = Maximum(H...
by verec
Fri Jul 16, 2004 1:17 am
Forum: Brokers
Topic: European alternative to Interactive Brokers?
Replies: 14
Views: 9925

As an Europe native, I feel discriminated against by Chris67. I am not too certain about the goals or agenda this America native is pursuing, but I don't find it too conductive of ideas exchange of other forms of collaboration in a public forum. To the administrators: any way to implement the equiva...
by verec
Thu Jul 15, 2004 9:52 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: why is curve fitting so bad?
Replies: 4
Views: 3518

You may want to read what c.f. had to say on this . But to make the discussion more productive, you might want to expand a bit on what you mean by having a system curve fitted for say,l commodities is acceptable in my opinion What kind of curve fitting? Parameter optimization? Market selection? And ...
by verec
Sun Jul 11, 2004 8:23 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Family... Siblings... and their relations to trading?
Replies: 3
Views: 5394

A lot of people cannot do without constant company. To me this sounds like a form of torture - l'enfer, c'est les autres, as Sartre rightly observed - it is in quietude that I can think best and develop ideas[...] I can really relate to this, but I find it mildly amusing, that most of us "lonesome ...
by verec
Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:17 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: How do I reduce risk in this situation?
Replies: 17
Views: 13642

Re: How do I reduce risk in this situation?

This situation wipes out most of your capital. If by "most" you mean, say, more than 75%, doing the math backwards tells me that you started with about $50,000. Now, excluding slippage, the loss you were willing to accept ($500) was about 1%. So far, so good. The problem is that your stop was well ...
by verec
Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:17 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: what is the best web-based stock screener? Free or paid
Replies: 11
Views: 13965

I almost awlays cringe when I see: "what is the best [xxx]?" as if "best" could be unambiguously determined by some objective metrics. It is almost as if you had asked "what is the best web site for wines which are long in the mouth, have a bit of a leg, but not too rich in tannin?" What kind of anw...
by verec
Mon Jul 05, 2004 5:32 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Further thoughts on Backtesting
Replies: 19
Views: 11739

Can client deposit and withdrawal of funds be controlled or modelled by computers? That's an excellent point. Although, at least rhetorically, one could argue that that is precisely what trading systems are all about ... But I do get your point, and share the beleif, that the day every single inves...
by verec
Sun Jul 04, 2004 8:15 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Further thoughts on Backtesting
Replies: 19
Views: 11739

Any strategy that works over many markets and many years will of necessity gain its edge from market behavior based on a human psychological characteristic that is unlikely to go away, and for this reason such a strategy will be very likely to continue to work in the future. Isn't this beleif based...
by verec
Wed Jun 30, 2004 6:30 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Further thoughts on Backtesting
Replies: 19
Views: 11739

Re: Further thoughts on Backtesting

I seriously think its a bad idea to backtest any form of trendfollowing system on the years 1980 - 1989 ... i think a one armed , blind lobotomised monkey couild have made money trendfollowing with any kind of system in this period [...] It may be so for the very reasons you outline, but then you h...
by verec
Tue Jun 29, 2004 8:12 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Scaling / 'Pyramiding'
Replies: 31
Views: 36054

My question is, given my style, how can I not close out positions based upon price targets? What are the ideas that you could try, but reject at first because you consider them stupid? What about timed exit? Why? Why not? What about volume based exit? Why? Why not? What about SMA based exits? Why? ...
by verec
Thu Jun 24, 2004 2:00 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Scaling / 'Pyramiding'
Replies: 31
Views: 36054

Re: Scaling/Pyramiding

I can't realistically see me doing that. and There just isn't enough time to try every thing yourself Well... how do you trust other's results? What do you know that can allow you to bypass the necessary filtering between good ideas, methods, results and crackpots/jokes/I-dare-you-to/traps? Trading...
by verec
Tue Apr 06, 2004 3:11 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Dos and Donts of Drawdowns
Replies: 23
Views: 22785

I just had a look at InnerWorth (that was mentionned in some other thread here ), and one thing strikes me as relevant to this thread (how do you cope with changing market conditions, how do you know when to follow the rules and when to break them). Q: How did we justify the existence of i that numb...
by verec
Sun Apr 04, 2004 11:16 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Dos and Donts of Drawdowns
Replies: 23
Views: 22785

How do we determine permament change vs temporary change?? In this very question, I see the ugly head of FUD at work, undermining all your actions :( My 2p perspective is this: You always are on the look out for new systems, and You constantly back test them on the same set of data, over the same p...
by verec
Mon Mar 22, 2004 6:03 am
Forum: Custom C++ or Java Platforms
Topic: Metastock parsing ... in Java
Replies: 8
Views: 16732

I'd rather think twice (at least) before using any kind of database, but if that's really (really!) what you want to do, I'd start reading The Prevaylence Java Database and especially the The Skeptic FAQ about the kind of performance claims this guy seems to be able to justify. Version 1.0, the only...
by verec
Sat Mar 06, 2004 5:13 pm
Forum: Custom C++ or Java Platforms
Topic: DBase
Replies: 4
Views: 6946

What does the code that actually does the testing look like? Presumably, something of the sort: for(int i = 0, length = quotes.length ; i < length ; ++i) { Quote q = quotes[i] ; float close = q.close ; float high = q.high ; float low = q.low ; // here starts the interesting bits ... } Assuming that ...
by verec
Sun Feb 22, 2004 4:15 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Has any one taken Van K. Peak Performance Home Study Program
Replies: 15
Views: 16056

One of the joys of our association with c.f. is that he has avoided this sort of ego building exercise. That is certainly true, though this doesn't imply that Van Tharp did. Like the proverbial "beauty in the eye of the beholder", cult following belongs at least as much in the eye of the follower ....
by verec
Sat Feb 21, 2004 8:15 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Has any one taken Van K. Peak Performance Home Study Program
Replies: 15
Views: 16056

Van Tharp PP course was useful to me. It debunked a pack of myths. In no particular order: There's no holy grail. If there is a secret, that secret is you. Position sizing is more important than anything else. Exits are more important than entries Define your goal. If you don't have a goal, you're n...
by verec
Thu Feb 05, 2004 12:54 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: poll for character/temperament types
Replies: 35
Views: 44215

I do get your point about preference, though I still think that most surveys are biased in ways that are detrimental to the survey itself. The last question quoted in my example really is a case in point, where the same "NO" answer really means (at least) two very opposite attitudes: "I'm confident"...
by verec
Thu Feb 05, 2004 4:43 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: poll for character/temperament types
Replies: 35
Views: 44215

One thing that bugs me, is why most of those tests are always somehow flawed, either in big or little ways. For example, the test at HumanMetrics asks many questions whose answer cannot be the binary choice that is offered: - You rapidly get involved in social life at a new workplace. Answers: no, y...
by verec
Tue Feb 03, 2004 6:12 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: The Turtle program as a business model
Replies: 7
Views: 7701

I would think it would be much easier to recruit, train, and supervise a batch of Turtles than to personally manage a fund. Are you sure? What's going to happen when the market goes against all your positions at once, leaving your trainees in the dark? How are you going to give them the confidence ...