Search found 49 matches

by William
Mon Apr 05, 2004 10:45 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Dos and Donts of Drawdowns
Replies: 23
Views: 22816

Eck, Thats a great article, thanks for refreshing my memory about its existence. Dunn: We only have two systems. The first system is the one I started with in 1974. The other system, we developed and launched in 1989. The major strategic elements of these two models—how and when to trade, how much...
by William
Thu Apr 01, 2004 12:24 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Dos and Donts of Drawdowns
Replies: 23
Views: 22816

Permanent vs Temporary Change..

Identifying Permanent Change vs. Temporary Q: In the 20-plus years that you have been trading, what has been your greatest challenge? Campbell: Maintaining our discipline. It is one thing to develop winning strategies, but quite another to overcome your doubts during the tough times and to stick to ...
by William
Fri Feb 27, 2004 10:37 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Backtested performance help
Replies: 8
Views: 7393

Stan, Thanks for your input and your ideas. One of the ideas i have bounced around is actually varying between two start dates. For my testing, i was orignally testing starting from 1.01.90 and what i noticed was that my results were great for the first year, but when i walked it forward i went from...
by William
Thu Feb 26, 2004 10:20 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Backtested performance help
Replies: 8
Views: 7393

Start Date Issues

I have found that what i randomly choose as a start date, can eventually become the bedrock of my performance results. For example, my first year gets curve fitted to the point where its a great year and from then on my results are unrealisitically scewed upward. I was wondering how other people try...
by William
Tue Feb 10, 2004 11:22 am
Forum: Testing Software
Topic: Trading System Languages Likes and Dislikes
Replies: 31
Views: 23776

Motivation Level < 0

First, thanks for the great site. Though I seem to have gotten ‘flamed’ as a ‘newbie’ for my unwillingness to post any test results...Perhaps I might give the new 2.0 a try. What's the price tag, what is the ETA, and can I get a pre-order invoice for this so I can pay for it with B-Trade So...
by William
Wed Feb 04, 2004 10:05 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Accuracy of worst drawdown
Replies: 10
Views: 9335

Chris, I think thats about right. A lot of people squirm around giving concrete answers since nothing is for sure. But from asking the same questions i have gathered that a realistic drawdown is your Worst DD% * 1.5. Then you take the Worst DD% * 1.75 & 2 to come up with your very worst drawdown, th...
by William
Tue Feb 03, 2004 9:45 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: The Turtle program as a business model
Replies: 7
Views: 7709

While I agree that there would be some cheerleading, sounds to me the model that Rich and William put to work was rather darwinistic. You had one guy follow the rules off the bat (c.f.) so he set the example - that could be you. The rest either played along and got more money, sort of played along a...
by William
Wed Jan 28, 2004 8:51 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Too Good to Be true ???
Replies: 7
Views: 5983

Most helpful. Thanks for your insights.
by William
Tue Jan 27, 2004 6:26 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Too Good to Be true ???
Replies: 7
Views: 5983

Stress Testing

Stress Testing I was wondering what the forum members think is an approriate level of stress for a system and how do they gauge if the system adequately passed the test? So far, the two parameters i have been tweaking is slippage and commissions. With slippage, i'm not sure how to interpret 100% sli...
by William
Thu Jan 22, 2004 8:12 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Bollinger Counter trend - Help !
Replies: 3
Views: 4078

Chris, I feel your pain. :wink: I had great expecations when i first heard counter trend. We can make money all of the time.. Yippee :!: :!: I have found, that very small intervals work best, so when you do stepping do it in small increments. I think there is a very small window of operation for tha...
by William
Tue Jan 20, 2004 4:53 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: What course would you suggest?
Replies: 9
Views: 10851

Courses

I have never dealt with the guy or taken any of his courses but i would be very leery of a guy who is offering to teach you something that is available for free on the Internet. Also, in terms of his success as a trader, i wouldn't believe the hype until i saw his audited trading journal. Also, the ...
by William
Sun Jan 18, 2004 10:45 am
Forum: Testing Software
Topic: Trading System Languages Likes and Dislikes
Replies: 31
Views: 23776

Wish List for 2.0 Programming and Features

From a non-programming point of view, i think the best thing you can do is to make the language simple (HighestHigh) but robust and intuitive. It has to be a language that is easy to start from ground zero and get relatively complex after some "brief study" A library of popular codes and commands th...
by William
Sat Jan 10, 2004 8:38 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Too much reading ...
Replies: 58
Views: 49260

RS, I agree with many of your points. And my answer only comes through the experience of a few friends who are in business schools looking for jobs. So, my experience may be very different than the norm. Many if not all of the jobs that my friends are seeing are exactly what you said...market makers...
by William
Fri Jan 09, 2004 11:03 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Too much reading ...
Replies: 58
Views: 49260

Damian, You are correct, simplicity is perhaps not the correct word. The rules seem a lot easier to create 20+ years later and having read them at least 10xs over a span of a few months. :) Its genius is its completeness, complex principles condensed into a executable rules. I guess, to perhaps stat...
by William
Fri Jan 09, 2004 10:07 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Too much reading ...
Replies: 58
Views: 49260

humility may help but is definitely not the end of the story, unfortunately Well, i would say fortunately, it takes a lot of things to be successful in trading. A list of requirements that don't come in the same goodies bag with smarts when the great Maker above was dishing it out. :) The more inta...
by William
Fri Jan 09, 2004 8:58 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Too much reading ...
Replies: 58
Views: 49260

Well, my best friend is in Yale's business school - he tried trading for about 6 months and blew up. He had great picks but he usually got way too aggressive and lost it all. So, I know plenty of smart people, who can't handle the emotions of trading. Or smart people who hate to admit that they are ...
by William
Sat Jan 03, 2004 1:27 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Mistakes...I've made a few!
Replies: 7
Views: 7127

Discretionary flare...

Thanks for the post and thread, hopefully others will share. The discretionary flare to your system, are you able to historically test that. I was given some good advice not too long ago, start small, experience a 30% drawdown, before you draw any conclusions about 50% drawdowns and your ability to ...
by William
Wed Dec 24, 2003 9:05 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: negative correlation
Replies: 6
Views: 6093

Thanks

Thanks David, in rereading my post i think i put too fine a point on the wording....thanks for the clarification. Something i find slightly interesting is JWH has a trading system that trades the dollar vs. foreign currencies. Perhaps making a system that would focus in an area of strong uncorrelati...
by William
Tue Dec 23, 2003 4:39 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: negative correlation
Replies: 6
Views: 6093

Uncorrelated vs Not Correlated

David, Funny, this post couldnt be better timed, i was messing with some numbers today. I want to clarify the terms un-correlation vs. not correlated because it may be causing some confusion for me. (For me, non-correlation means negative correlation, not correlated means 0% correlation.) 100% Un-co...
by William
Mon Nov 10, 2003 7:24 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Interesting test results (for a budding tester at least)
Replies: 5
Views: 5582

Kiwi, thanks. I have read some of those books and i will go back to them and re-read them. I understand what that testing method is attempting to avoid as well as achieve. Has anyone read studies where they compared results of the two methods of backtesting going forward?