Search found 54 matches

by richard
Fri Aug 20, 2004 1:53 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: A Basic Question: Pit & Electronic
Replies: 9
Views: 5293

On CBOT, there are e-contracts on e-cbot for the pit traded ones, but for the ag futures they are thinly traded compared to the pit-traded versions. edited to add some more: Why even trade pit futures? Fills are poor, there are often delays in reporting fills, stops are routinely overshot, slippage ...
by richard
Wed Aug 18, 2004 3:43 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Statistical approach to trailing stops
Replies: 7
Views: 6268

I think your profit target method makes some sense. Some strategies that I am interested in: 1. tightening your profit targets as time goes by, so that as time progresses your targets get nearer than they were. 2. tightening profit targets in accordance with volatility, so that as volatility increas...
by richard
Sun Aug 15, 2004 12:21 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: how your system handles price shocks, outliers, black swans?
Replies: 1
Views: 2831

how your system handles price shocks, outliers, black swans?

I was reading Perry Kaufman's Smarter Trading and thinking about his chapters on price shocks. A few weeks ago I was in Orange Juice when it dropped 5 cents. In about 5 minutes. It dropped 12 cents in two days. I was also in Live Cattle a month or so ago when I foolishly held onto a position over th...
by richard
Mon Aug 09, 2004 4:26 pm
Forum: Testing Software
Topic: Charting historical intraday data?
Replies: 2
Views: 3583

I have been using AmiBroker and it seems decent. It gives you multiple views, handles intraday, handles the formats you are seeking, and what I like about it is that all the indicators come with code you can change.
by richard
Mon Aug 09, 2004 10:13 am
Forum: Brokers
Topic: Lump Sum Investing
Replies: 2
Views: 3594

Of course, just because something has worked in the (recent) past doesn't mean it will work now. It could be that you are investing a lump sum in a fund that has a drawdown, and that the fund will have more of a drawdown after you invest. Put it this way: of all the funds that did so poorly that the...
by richard
Fri Jul 30, 2004 1:00 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: changing moving average intervals based upon volatility
Replies: 2
Views: 4296

changing moving average intervals based upon volatility

It seems that a system like the Turtle system could be improved by altering the MA intervals based upon volatility. For instance, couldn't an exit be improved so that for lots of volatilty, the exit would be quicker based upon a shorter MA interval crossover? And for less volatile times, couldn't th...
by richard
Fri Jul 30, 2004 12:48 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: failed setups, failed tests -- do you trade based on them?
Replies: 0
Views: 3248

failed setups, failed tests -- do you trade based on them?

My overall question is whether or not you have traded a system based upon failures of setups? It seems often that a setup that fails, or a test that fails, turns into a wonderful stop-and-reverse, and can be a real money-maker. Some background... I have been trying out various methods of trading. La...
by richard
Wed Jul 21, 2004 1:13 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: how important is intraday volume data?
Replies: 5
Views: 4848

I downloaded SierraChart and didn't really like it very much. I find the UI clunky.

Do you have any other suggestions for a good charting package with a data feed?

Thanks!
by richard
Wed Jul 14, 2004 11:04 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Are You Suited to Trend Following
Replies: 42
Views: 54933

I'm probably a lousy trend follower. I am more suited to swing trading at this point I guess.
by richard
Tue Jul 13, 2004 12:33 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: has anyone studied Toby Crabel's ideas?
Replies: 6
Views: 7229

I wonder if anyone is trading systems based upon cyclicality of volatility and the rate of change of volatility? The rate of change of volatility can be used in a trend following system to change the exit signal, for instance. Perhaps a MA used for exit (say a 5 day) can be moved to 3 day in event o...
by richard
Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:36 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: How do I reduce risk in this situation?
Replies: 17
Views: 13707

the point is then that FX is lower risk in terms of potential liability in event of a meltdown or meltup -- is that not correct?
by richard
Mon Jul 12, 2004 6:00 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: How do I reduce risk in this situation?
Replies: 17
Views: 13707

Thanks, Bollinger, for correcting my mistake.
by richard
Mon Jul 12, 2004 1:04 pm
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Big Picture: market risk and memory
Replies: 2
Views: 7057

It's a good thing there's not much study of history going on, otherwise we might have to take up another business How true. Reminiscences is truly a deserved classic. Every time I read it, different sections jump out at me. So speaking of memories... There is a chapter about the '07 panic that hit ...
by richard
Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:21 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: How do I reduce risk in this situation?
Replies: 17
Views: 13707

That meltdown risk is a risk of futures. If you do not want to face this risk, you can as you say trade options or some other market (Forex for instance). If I may ask, how is forex different from futures? Is there some kind of rule that protects the speculator? Forex is basically a cash market, so...
by richard
Mon Jul 12, 2004 8:18 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Which commodity is good for beginner trader?
Replies: 18
Views: 10439

I'm not saying people won't buy options, I'm just saying there is a lot of slippage involved -- the spread between buy and sell prices are quite high with options. Transaction costs in the form of slippage can be high enough to overcome your edge unless you are trading longer term, in which case you...
by richard
Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:01 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Which commodity is good for beginner trader?
Replies: 18
Views: 10439

You can certainly trade options instead of futures. Options are however rather illiquid and thinly traded. This means you have quite a spread between buy and sell prices, so you take a bath in transaction costs (slippage), making them less than workable for short term trading at least IMHO. They wor...
by richard
Sun Jul 11, 2004 12:22 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Which commodity is good for beginner trader?
Replies: 18
Views: 10439

I don't trade the corn or wheat mini contracts because the action is in the pits with regard to those commodities. Same with mini beans. A daily limit means that if the commodity drops "limit down", say, trading is stopped until the next day. In some times in the past, commodities have been limit do...
by richard
Sat Jul 10, 2004 10:00 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Which commodity is good for beginner trader?
Replies: 18
Views: 10439

one with a lot of liquidity. Corn or wheat, or live cattle. If you are new you can trade one contract. There are mini ag contracts but they do not trade with much liquidity.
by richard
Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:57 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: How do I reduce risk in this situation?
Replies: 17
Views: 13707

I don't think your numbers are right. At this time September wheat is trading for about $3.40 per bushel. 5000 bushels to a contract. A penny move is worth $50. There is a limit of $0.30 per day that applies to everything except the spot month. If wheat opens Monday and gaps down to, say $3.20, you ...
by richard
Fri Jul 09, 2004 2:22 pm
Forum: Stocks
Topic: what is the best web-based stock screener? Free or paid
Replies: 11
Views: 14075

what is the best web-based stock screener? Free or paid

I am looking to trade some systems that require certain conditions and I am looking for a good web-based stock screener. Example of what I want to do: Find stocks that are in a downtrend or uptrend, as defined by, say, ADX over 30 and/or -DMA or +DMI above a certain point, and that are also above or...