Search found 5 matches

by Arthur W. Cutten
Fri Apr 23, 2004 8:26 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: By What Measure? - How do You Know if a System is Good?
Replies: 84
Views: 100785

Re: By What Measure? - How do You Know if a System is Good?

- Drawdowns < 50% - MAR Ratio > 1.2 - Returns > 35% for futures, 20% unleveraged stocks - Drawdowns < 40% - MAR Ratio > 2.0 - Returns > 50% for futures, 30% unleveraged stocks This would be tested over 20 years using the same system parameters for each year and each market. - Forum Mgmnt A good sys...
by Arthur W. Cutten
Fri Apr 02, 2004 1:01 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: What % equity to risk on high expectation trades?
Replies: 7
Views: 7995

if i am going on my own, i can handle a 40% drawdown, so i would take about 3.5% per transaction. if i am managing client money, a lot of investors who want really high returns start getting nervous in the 30% range. after several thousand runs, there is a tiny % chance that we will experience a 10...
by Arthur W. Cutten
Thu Apr 01, 2004 7:09 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: What % equity to risk on high expectation trades?
Replies: 7
Views: 7995

eck wrote:how many trades do we get, or do we trade in perpetuity?
Trade in perpetuity. Assume the opportunities are infrequent e.g. 3 or 4 such trades per year.
by Arthur W. Cutten
Tue Mar 30, 2004 12:03 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Thoughts on entry price, and open vs closed equity
Replies: 9
Views: 10436

Thoughts on entry price, and open vs closed equity

Consider the following two traders: Joe Trader has 100k closed equity His identical twin Jack trader has 80k closed equity and a position in commodity X, showing 20k open equity. They thus have identical total equity. Now, assuming Joe and Jack have identical risk tolerance, net worth, performance g...
by Arthur W. Cutten
Tue Mar 30, 2004 10:39 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: What % equity to risk on high expectation trades?
Replies: 7
Views: 7995

What % equity to risk on high expectation trades?

What % of your net worth (not account equity) would you risk if presented with the following hypothetical trade opportunity: Reward to risk ratio: 5 to 1 Probability of profit: 75% Assume the market will not gap beyond your stop, and that you either take the full profit, or get stopped out for the f...