Search found 20 matches

by Erwin Dicker
Mon Apr 12, 2004 5:33 pm
Forum: Testing Software
Topic: Imagining the Dream Testing Software?
Replies: 18
Views: 16567

Systems and personality

Hi c.f. Interesting question, it comes down to your key proces. Making the best research software in order to give traders confidence to follow a system. Anyone wants the most profit with the least drawdowns. The system should give an answer on questions like: I want x% profit per year and maximal d...
by Erwin Dicker
Mon Apr 12, 2004 4:52 pm
Forum: Testing Software
Topic: Trading System Languages Likes and Dislikes
Replies: 31
Views: 23976

Re: Trading System Languages Likes and Dislikes

What do you like about the trading system specific languages you use? What don't you like? Any suggestions as we work on the language for VeriTrader 2.0? c.f. P.S. If you answer none of the above in the poll, please post your two or three most hated "features". Hello c.f. A language script is diffi...
by Erwin Dicker
Mon Jan 12, 2004 5:08 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Drawing Conclusions from Tests with Too Little Data
Replies: 14
Views: 6098

Thanks for the confirmation...

And the confidence!

Erwin
by Erwin Dicker
Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:27 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Drawing Conclusions from Tests with Too Little Data
Replies: 14
Views: 6098

DATA check

Hello Forum Mgmnt, Perhaps you can help me. When i check my CSI data the prices of the ED future at 17-10-2002 where Open: 0.9498 High: 0.96040 Low: 0.9438 Close: 0.9458 The system traded on different values ( 0.98...) as you can see in my previous post. Is this because of adjusting data to continuo...
by Erwin Dicker
Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:24 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Drawing Conclusions from Tests with Too Little Data
Replies: 14
Views: 6098

Results in Veritrader oké? TRADELOG.TXT

I tested and tested of course Veritrader Demo. It is very usefull, although it is of course a black box to me. Can someone tell if i take the right conclusions When you check the trade log you see negative prices for some futures (is it because of back adjusting?) When the equity grows i get for exa...
by Erwin Dicker
Sun Jan 04, 2004 5:47 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Optimizing with Veritrader? 19billion!
Replies: 9
Views: 4577

Yes, Money and Risk management is important

Hello Brendo, Yes you are right, partially i believe. ADDING is done rather crude, but it can be done like the turtles say, and i even practise it. So it is not that i don not agree, but i described some qualities of the added positions. And, when you compare e.g. the performance of the quadriga fun...
by Erwin Dicker
Sun Jan 04, 2004 3:13 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Optimizing with Veritrader? 19billion!
Replies: 9
Views: 4577

Randomizing...

I understand your point (s). Thanks for your extensive answer. My idea was that trading a set of 23 futures for a period of 5 years would be enough to have enough trends and enough non-trending times. I cannot prove my idea. If the system performs well on the period before the testset, it is better....
by Erwin Dicker
Sun Jan 04, 2004 4:13 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Optimizing with Veritrader? 19billion!
Replies: 9
Views: 4577

Of course..... again...what is enough? 2629 ....

There is way too little data included with the Demo version for one to draw any conclusions about likely performance. This concept has been discussed here before and will come up again. The sensitivity to portfolio and particular parameters is far to high if you don't test with enough data. I alway...
by Erwin Dicker
Sat Jan 03, 2004 5:52 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Optimizing with Veritrader? 19billion!
Replies: 9
Views: 4577

Using exploring the demo version...

I made a nice system with the turtle futures set. CAGR % 86.74% Maximum Total Equity Drawdown % 46.13% MAR Ratio 1.88 Modified Sharpe Ratio 1.58 Annual Sharpe Ratio 1.45 Annual Sortino Ratio + ∞   Monthly Sharpe Ratio 0.43 Monthly Sortino Ratio 0.92 Calmar Ratio 2.08 To keep it simple i included a...
by Erwin Dicker
Fri Jan 02, 2004 3:57 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Optimizing with Veritrader? 19billion!
Replies: 9
Views: 4577

Optimizing with Veritrader? 19billion!

I was optimizing with veritrader and i used the demo portfolio. Results: 19.000.000.000 :o :o :o Ending balance $19,301,562,247.62 CAGR 501.4% MAR 8.32 Sharpes 1.83 & 1.13 Drawdowns 60.3% & 44.0% (oké, is much) periods DD 6.7 trades 2268 WHAT NOW? :lol: :lol: :lol: Erwin
by Erwin Dicker
Mon Dec 29, 2003 2:33 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

Duke & Duke ....

Humor is very important in trading. It helps you to accept your losers.

Laugh when you lose....... :lol:

And i think that if one wants to feel bad he will get that feeling.

Funny film by the way :lol:

Erwin
by Erwin Dicker
Sun Dec 28, 2003 7:07 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

Thanks for your reaction. Of course..... one misses the intonation.... :lol: And....i'm not oversensitive 8). You cannot be a trader then, without emotional control :| My goal is to come to the (emotional - psychological) fundamentals of trading with as less math as possible. That is why i put my hy...
by Erwin Dicker
Sun Dec 28, 2003 5:33 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

I would give more weight in my central defuzzoider to money management and psicology. In money management I think there is room for a certain grade of control and optimization; think about risk of ruin or max drawdown. But it all comes back to psicology, do you wanna become the next Soros or Ninja ...
by Erwin Dicker
Sat Dec 27, 2003 4:17 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Total Capital Requirements
Replies: 5
Views: 5887

Re: Total Capital Requirements + BREAKOUTS

I disagree with you about capital needed = 1000.000 usd. You can pick up trends with 100.000 usd. Even less, in my vision and experience. Which trendfollower is NOT LONG IN EURO/DOLLAR? It is impossible to not be in a long position. The maximum risk is appr. 2000 - 3000 usd per position. And this is...
by Erwin Dicker
Sat Dec 27, 2003 4:55 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

Post Xmas Fun. Merry Xmas everyone ... or whatever celebration you were involved in at this time of the year. I see c.f. objected to 3. I would like to have a go at 2 and 5 for some fun. 2. indicators don't have predicting value To me this contradicts 4. For example a moving average is a trend foll...
by Erwin Dicker
Thu Dec 25, 2003 4:19 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

Adding positions

----Entry price seems to me something fuzzy--- Imagination is the solution...... Imagine that a price movement is significant. Imagine that this will become a huge trend, what will you do? But you have to obey the rule to keep the risk constant. :?: The risk is the gas pedal of your portfolio. Concl...
by Erwin Dicker
Wed Dec 24, 2003 12:27 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

In my view you can better take the largest historical loser as indication for the optimal bet. The new largest loser occurs with the biggest position, isn't it. And this can be far out of the statistical region of Kelly, see my point? And YES, volatility tells something about noise. So now is the qu...
by Erwin Dicker
Wed Dec 24, 2003 2:21 am
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

Number 4: Keep risk constant in the trade is all about money management. E.g. start with 3% risk, when a trade is good for you, you get a profit in the open position. Add again a position and keep total risk (of 2 trades) at 3% risk. There are a different ways to do it. Noise: you know the signal/no...
by Erwin Dicker
Tue Dec 23, 2003 12:30 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

Oké, it is not impossible, but you are right. So we will leave nr 3 out / or better we change it in 3. Every price-action consists of "noise", or random movement, agree? So the trading hypotheses are: 1. no one can predict 2. indicators don't have predicting value 3. every price-action consists of ...
by Erwin Dicker
Mon Dec 22, 2003 4:02 pm
Forum: Trend Indicators and Signals
Topic: EXIT signals ...
Replies: 29
Views: 32793

It is logical that indicators don't work.....

Hello, very nice this forum, i just joined it. I want to put some hypotheses here and i'm interested in reactions. It is my goal to develop a system (together?) from these hypotheses. Here they are: 1. no one can predict 2. indicators don't have predicting value 3. entries are unimportant 4. trends ...