Search found 41 matches

by MarkS
Fri Jan 11, 2013 11:07 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

Thanks for letting me know Chuck. For those who want to read it, the article title is called "Currency Funds Face Diminishing Returns" dated today, 1/11/13.
by MarkS
Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:06 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

it is also possible that the unprecedented joint intervention of all Central Banks into FX, bonds and stocks has killed volatility and being a trend follower means to be long volatility. Those in 'charge' are forcing the hand of investors into things that, maybe, they would not invest in 'normal' c...
by MarkS
Tue Nov 20, 2012 11:21 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

Chuck -- Excellent posts and thank you for sharing. With regard to orders on the first day, my partner and I also had that discussion; we ended up doing probably the least scientific thing imaginable: we pulled up all the open positions the night before our trading "start" and eyeballed the trends v...
by MarkS
Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:18 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

Roscoe -- always great to hear about a positive run. Hats off. :) How would your system have worked if you had started at the end of Spring 2011 when I did? I am beginning to see how much luck/timing also plays a part in all this! Jas-105 -- I have the original test runs in front of me (the one I ha...
by MarkS
Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:40 am
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

First, thanks for the condolences. :) Rhc -- you made me laugh, something I needed. And I hope the rest of you are right, and that I am helping along that shakeout, similar to when the last momentum buyer exhausted his capital in April of 2000, or the last liar mortgage was issued in July of 2007! A...
by MarkS
Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:17 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

Levi -- which stats do you want to know? The R^3? The MAR? CAGR? Percentage risk per trade?
by MarkS
Thu Nov 15, 2012 12:19 pm
Forum: Money Management
Topic: Shutting down our small fund
Replies: 43
Views: 19286

Shutting down our small fund

Just as an FYI or data point: 18 months ago, a friend and I put together a small fund for a few friends that we papered up to be exempt for registration purposes and launched with $250k of speculative capital. Traded across 48 markets using a slightly modified version of the Donchian breakout progra...
by MarkS
Sun Jun 03, 2012 11:24 am
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: RF contract and Swiss Bank intervention
Replies: 2
Views: 2029

Thank you for both links. I appreciate your idea of a test trade in new markets.
by MarkS
Sat Jun 02, 2012 6:19 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: RF contract and Swiss Bank intervention
Replies: 2
Views: 2029

RF contract and Swiss Bank intervention

Just want to make sure I'm right on this, as I've not traded crosses extensively before, and the CME contract specs aren't as clear as one would think... RF appears to be defined as EUR/CHF. So am I right to think that if the Swiss Bank allows the CHF to float freely, then the denominator will go up...
by MarkS
Thu May 17, 2012 10:01 am
Forum: Data Providers and other non testing software
Topic: CSI data different on perpetual contract than on actual
Replies: 4
Views: 3141

Turned out this morning when I looked at it with a clearer head before work I was looking at a perpetual contract built on XW2--floor and electronic-- against the mini XW, which is the mini only on the Mid-Am. That's the difference. And since I also trade full size wheat [I run TB on mini so that it...
by MarkS
Wed May 16, 2012 9:42 pm
Forum: Data Providers and other non testing software
Topic: CSI data different on perpetual contract than on actual
Replies: 4
Views: 3141

CSI data different on perpetual contract than on actual

Anyone else have this occur to them? It's happens me about once every couple of months -- usually when I notice TB suddenly stops me out of a trade at a price that the market clearly never touched. For example, tonight (5/16/12), on my back-adjusted Mini-Wheat, the front month is July. High on perpe...
by MarkS
Fri Mar 02, 2012 10:50 am
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

A "Silicon Valley venture capitalist" and former "Apple evangelist" explains why he thinks Google+ may overtake Facebook...And how to promote using social media without being "nauseating".... DPH -- It's funny timing, because yesterday the WSJ had an article how Google+'s average user is on the sit...
by MarkS
Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:24 am
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

This ^^^ ... doesn't matter if they have every world citizen as users for advertisers, having 1M "likes" doesn't mean anything if they aren't able to convert those "friends" to customers. (would be good for the game developers though). MarkS .. do you have any good data on this? Mojo -- do you mean...
by MarkS
Fri Feb 03, 2012 11:14 am
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

Here is a viewpoint on the valuation from a partner at Benchmark (who, as earlier investors in FB, obviously have bias for as big an IPO as possible). I disagree on some parts, but still an interesting read to see how the true believers see it. Especially his ranking FB on the ten factors that make ...
by MarkS
Fri Feb 03, 2012 10:40 am
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

This ^^^ ... doesn't matter if they have every world citizen as users for advertisers, having 1M "likes" doesn't mean anything if they aren't able to convert those "friends" to customers. (would be good for the game developers though). MarkS .. do you have any good data on this? Mojo -- do you mean...
by MarkS
Fri Feb 03, 2012 9:35 am
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

Few points: 1. Great article on page B1 of the US edition of the Wall Street Journal on the battle over what FB is worth. Very similar to our discussion. 2. Chris -- When something new comes along, and it always does, then a company either adjusts or dies. That's capitalism. With FB, the one big adv...
by MarkS
Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:07 pm
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

sluggo wrote:
MarkS wrote: ... you can get enormous granularity ...
I wanted to preserve this little howler lest it disappear via editing or deletion.
Sluggo a common internet grammar bully? 2 c that yur post adds nothin' 2 da conversation at hand is....not surprising.
by MarkS
Thu Feb 02, 2012 8:06 pm
Forum: Market Psychology
Topic: Facebook IPO, I just don't "get it"
Replies: 53
Views: 34414

A common psychological mistake people make is to think that since X doesn't appeal or apply to them, it must not have much merit. While someone may not use FB, there are 800M accounts, many of which are active. Look at the stats on how long people spend on Facebook when they do use their accounts......
by MarkS
Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:40 pm
Forum: Futures Markets
Topic: Eurodollar (ED) - limited upside - PART 2
Replies: 8
Views: 2526

I believe Japan was the first place I ever saw negative interest rates. The WSJ ran a story from mid-January of this year about how the German six-month bills are now yielding negative 0.0122%, the first for that country. Two ways (of many) to think about it: as mentioned above, from investor side -...
by MarkS
Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:39 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: This is good
Replies: 7
Views: 3108

Thanks for the PM and link, Marriot. I believe it says their annualized return is roughly 7% -- am I reading that correctly? Is your 56% an annual figure or a total return over a 5-year period? If annual, I've raised money on the venture capital side, and at least in that world an IRR of 25% would m...