Traders' Roundtable

Great thread :) As part of the overall system are entries and exits justifiably quantifiable? Can supposedly objective entry and exit methods take into account unquantifiable variables (complex interacting patterns)? Does an attempt to quantify the taking on, and eventual exit, of risk treat people ...

"good performance" also depends on what YOU want from your system. Couldn't agree with you more ... To me, ultimately, trading means honestly expressing oneself. It is very difficult to do. One can create some really fancy back-tests and optimizations and be blinded by it. But, to experience & expr...

Steve,

I guess, I’ll find out soon enough what options the UK has to offer. I’m moving to London in a few months time.

There are ways for non-U.S. investors to get better leverage than the 2 to 1 limit imposed by the SEC including CFDs and spread-betting but these have other risks and issues. hi c.f. The above is music to my ears. Do you know how much better? And what avenues are you referring to? This SEC imposed ...

hi Kevin One One of the things I find valuable about the Turtle Roundtable is a pragmatic focus. Sometimes members are known to prompt "what do your results say", which is a way to encourage people to share based on actual findings and experiences. Hi Kevin I realize, very well, the favorite questio...

You are correct, in that my focus was on stage 1 as you define it. I think the basics are supremely important. If one impregnates a model with certain assumptions that have nothing to do with reality, the real world results would not be very pleasant. If a doctor did the equivalent he could end up k...

MCT wrote: And time, my friend, makes it difficult to determine what’s really optimal. You can't determine what your profit will be, but you can determine what your loss will be. PS Wrote: This is a person dependent issue. Anyone who know what he want can establish goals and can design strategies ...

The first criterion is to minimize the probability to lose the inital capital (bankroll). The second criterion is to maximize the probability to reach the target profit or sum. Any fixed-fraction betting strategy satisfy to the first criterion (at least theoreticaly). If we will try to maximize the...

Hi Ghostrader

trading currency futures can be very dangerous, if you must play that game, trade spot and EFP into the future.

Can you please elaborate? What do you mean dangerous?

Hi Alex If you are interested in systematic trading, I suggest you study the following link and the pdf turtle manual thoroughly before risking a single cent http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewforum.php?f=6 Don't worry about how much money you are going to make, instead worry how it is you make it...

Hi Darran, Thanks for the additional info .. Hi there, just to clear up, he doesn't own Man Utd, but in partnership with a guy called John Magnier (Head of the Coolmore Stud) holds a major stake (somewhere in the region of 25% to 30% comes to mind). I said, "he just bought Manchester United, the UK ...

The name JP McManus comes to mind. This guy is not a hedge fund manager or a CTA; he simply manages he's own funds. He just bought Manchester United, the UK soccer team, with a close friend of his. Currencies are his speciality and his bets are bank sized. Estimates of his net worth has ranged anywh...

[quote]Before I began trading systems I pondered whether some kind of discretionary override could improve performance during these periods. For a number of reasons I decided not to override the system at any time unless a drawdown exceeded my predetermined “bailoutâ€

Obviously MM is very important. But it is an area where one can carelessly hypnotise themselves on the mantra and forget what you correctly point out. Position Sizing is the perfect tool to bleed to death slowly. Position Sizing/Money Management does not change the direction of flow, it just regula...

Others may quite fairly add granularity to this by suggesting qualifying time frames for profit and by expressing net revenue in terms of other metrics, such as magnitude or volatility of X, Y or Z. Be my guest. In the absence of profit, relativity is meaningless. Without profit you have no numerat...

What makes a Trendfollower a Trendfollower?

John,

For some discretionary and/or hybrid traders, it would be just what the doctor ordered... I agree, for the systematic trendfollower it equals high risk ...

Nathan

I came across this nifty software years ago. From what I understand the company has gone under. It appears, it just might hold the answer to some of your questions.

http://www.moneymentor.com/sponsors/pinpoint.htm

Cheers

Leonardo,

"I would not be afraid to buy any market at new yearly highs with the exit trailing at last month lows."

... interesting & simple. How often do you make such decisions, given your risk controls?

Leonardo, Your posts are interesting … .. and what’s your thought on timing? Do you believe simple entries and exits suffice? Is a simple breakout reason enough to accept 50-100 or more trades in a given year? No, I’m not a fundamentalist. After a long study of patterns and sentiment, I make b...