Search found 94 matches

by Sir G
Mon Dec 20, 2004 12:31 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: By What Measure? - How do You Know if a System is Good?
Replies: 83
Views: 75196

The guys that you are looking at (Campbell, Dunn, JWH, Eckhardt) seem all to be LTTF type of guys. IMHO, Long Term traders are a different breed then Short Term traders. Take a look at Toby Crabel, his record is ~12 years and his real time MAR is >2. I don’t classify traders as style, but in time ...
by Sir G
Sat Dec 18, 2004 12:26 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: By What Measure? - How do You Know if a System is Good?
Replies: 83
Views: 75196

Optimization is in every aspect of our lives. When we make a choice of yes or no … we have optimized based on analysis or feel, or maybe our negative impulses. It’s just like the people we are attracted to…we are optimizing our desires our wants and needs. And that will decide if we are happil...
by Sir G
Fri Dec 03, 2004 11:19 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Cross roads..
Replies: 3
Views: 5871

Cross roads..

I recently received an email from a distressed acquaintance, which lead me to this pondering/response. I thought I would share it with the forum.

Life is like cruising on a highway. Sometimes, we find ourselves on an “exit onlyâ€
by Sir G
Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:53 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Ideal Timing for Large Lump Sum Investment
Replies: 8
Views: 5388

Yes.. the Basso report… I remember that one. The survivorship bias IMHO is the big downside to that study. But if you have done studies in position sizing, you will make note that one of the edges you will get by trading a fixed fraction or anything like that is you are subsidizing the markets in ...
by Sir G
Thu Aug 05, 2004 9:09 pm
Forum: Brokers
Topic: My broker recommendation
Replies: 1
Views: 4263

My broker recommendation

Hi All- I've received a number of emails in the past from members of this forum asking me for a Brokerage recommendation. I've checked with c.f. and as I have no financial interest in this recommendation I can post it here in this section. My relationship with Doug Witter ( DWitter@refco.com ) is ov...
by Sir G
Sun Jun 06, 2004 10:20 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: More Rolling Algorthym Problems - HELP !!!
Replies: 2
Views: 3547

Hi batuco9- (bottom of Dan's reply in http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=360&highlight=rollover - where is it indicated how to reference specific posts?) If you click this link... http://www.tradingblox.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=2302#2302 it will direct you to Dan's post, which is the ...
by Sir G
Fri Oct 10, 2003 3:26 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: A forum of your own to keep the stress down?
Replies: 4
Views: 5532

Hi RedBull- Nothing beats experience to find the pros and cons of things.. thanks for the info.. I have personally set up the phpBB forum on a website, so I'm all taken care of. I hope others will consider doing something like this as it (IMHO) is a wonderful way to organize your thoughts. And from ...
by Sir G
Mon Oct 06, 2003 1:05 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: A forum of your own to keep the stress down?
Replies: 4
Views: 5532

I should also say that I have been told that the forum should be able to run on a local machine, so it isn't dependant upon a website..

One of these days, I'll give it a go on my local machine. But in the meantime, if any one else has tried it please let us know.

Gordon
by Sir G
Mon Oct 06, 2003 2:23 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: A forum of your own to keep the stress down?
Replies: 4
Views: 5532

A forum of your own to keep the stress down?

As the more efficient we are, the easier things flow.. it makes sense to try to be more efficient. Setting up a forum like this one for your personal consumption just might make things easier. I’m sure I’m like everyone else, the todo list keeps growing and growing and a few things fall through ...
by Sir G
Mon Sep 29, 2003 12:43 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: System Diversification
Replies: 11
Views: 7664

Hi Kiwi- So: does anyone want to answer the question - why might all of Keith's systems be failing at the same time? For what it is worth, I know nothing about Keith and his systems beyond what I have read on the forums…But I will give you a quick answer to your question. IMHO, the answer to why K...
by Sir G
Fri Sep 26, 2003 10:21 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: It’s all about: Accumulation and Compounding
Replies: 2
Views: 3296

It’s all about: Accumulation and Compounding

Following is a non-trading example of what trading is all about.

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/Ret ... P60708.asp

Gordon
by Sir G
Sat Sep 20, 2003 1:29 am
Forum: Forex
Topic: Backtesting and Accounting for Carry
Replies: 17
Views: 19088

If you trade longer term this actually does make a difference. The current interest charge for a 1 lot GBP/USD spot position is roughly $10 a day -- for a 2 lot position held for 4 months this adds up to 10 X 2 X 120 = $2400. Pretty significant extra profit or slippage to take into account. Another...
by Sir G
Fri Sep 19, 2003 10:20 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: ATR Value
Replies: 56
Views: 40107

In my example, market risk is always 1ATR/Close, period-that will always denote true market volatility to me. Just a friendly reminder to everyone who wants to test something like 1 ATR/ Close ... Don't use continuous contracts when you do it! Use actual contracts, as that is the only way you will ...
by Sir G
Fri Sep 19, 2003 4:44 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: ATR Value
Replies: 56
Views: 40107

The Problems of Induction I don’t see this so much as a problem, but more of an issue of our perceptions. In my book, Ed Seykota was right when he said, Everyone gets what they want. From scientists, to teachers, to traders and everything and everyone else in between, we all have biases that draw...
by Sir G
Wed Sep 17, 2003 12:24 pm
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: By What Measure? - How do You Know if a System is Good?
Replies: 83
Views: 75196

Hi MT- I came across a headline earlier today that I think also shows your point. Breast Implants Linked to Suicides Increased Suicide Risk Shown Among Women Who Get Breast Implants http://content.health.msn.com/content/article/73/88985.htm When I first read the headline, what came of my mind is the...
by Sir G
Tue Sep 16, 2003 3:12 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Which is harder for you folks?
Replies: 9
Views: 7502

Hi Sean- A few months ago I recall a couple of posts with/by Damian that kinda applies to your situation. After reading one of Damian’s posts I went to the book store and on table next to me was a book called.. Don't send a resume. http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/0786865962/qid=10637...
by Sir G
Tue Sep 16, 2003 12:46 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Which is harder for you folks?
Replies: 9
Views: 7502

Do you view life as a continual experiment, or do you long for when everything will become static? (ie, you have found the "winning" formula, ect) I have found that the more I view life as a continuing experiment, a path where i am likely to make frequent errors, the more open I have been to "repro...
by Sir G
Sat Sep 13, 2003 10:33 pm
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: Which is harder for you folks?
Replies: 9
Views: 7502

This would be a great poll question! I believe it is also the unlearning. But I think you can actually use this belief to your benefit. It shows you why it is so important to try to make the right decisions in the first place. From the folks you deal with outside the arena of trading to the ones ins...
by Sir G
Sat Sep 13, 2003 11:17 am
Forum: Trader Psychology
Topic: How do you handle a huge drawdown?
Replies: 8
Views: 7978

I recall reading in various places that Commodity Corp, Tudor Jones & Monroe Trout all incorporated trading stoppages at certain DD levels. I know that you can read Monroe Trout discussing it in New Market Wizards. There are actually 3 steps to this logic. The thresholds to stop trading The duration...
by Sir G
Thu Sep 11, 2003 11:03 am
Forum: Testing and Simulation
Topic: Historical Data
Replies: 31
Views: 24695

Following is a link to a very good example of checking the data integrity prior to testing with that data. https://www.tradestationworld.com/discussions/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=16540 A user from the TradeStation forum ran a series of tests on the new stock data that they just introduced. I believe the us...